Why Serbia Cannot Decide Between East and West
Serbia is a country that has been caught in the middle of a geopolitical tug-of-war between the European Union (EU) and Russia for decades. As an EU accession candidate since 2012, Serbia has struggled to balance its historical ties with Russia and its aspirations for integration with Europe. However, this balancing act has become increasingly difficult and risky, as the war in Ukraine, the rise of China, and the domestic challenges in Serbia have put pressure on its foreign policy and regional stability. In this blog post, we will explore the reasons why Serbia cannot decide between East and West, and the implications of its swing policy for the Balkans and beyond.
Serbia’s Historical and Cultural Affinity with Russia
One of the main reasons why Serbia cannot decide between East and West is its historical and cultural affinity with Russia. Serbia and Russia share a common Slavic and Orthodox Christian heritage, as well as a history of mutual support and solidarity in times of war and crisis. Russia has been Serbia’s traditional ally and protector, especially in the aftermath of the bloody breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, when Russia opposed NATO’s intervention and bombing of Serbia over the Kosovo issue. Russia has also been Serbia’s main supporter in its refusal to recognize Kosovo’s independence, which was declared in 2008 and backed by most Western countries. Russia has used its veto power in the UN Security Council to block Kosovo’s membership in international organizations, and has provided Serbia with diplomatic, economic, and military assistance.
Serbia’s Economic and Political Interests in the EU
Another reason why Serbia cannot decide between East and West is its economic and political interests in the EU. Serbia is a small and landlocked country that depends on trade and investment from the EU, which is its largest trading partner and donor. Serbia also sees the EU as a source of democratic values, rule of law, and human rights, which are essential for its modernization and development. Serbia has been pursuing EU membership since 2012, and has opened 18 out of 35 negotiation chapters so far. However, the EU accession process has been slow and uncertain, as the EU faces its own internal challenges, such as Brexit, the migration crisis, and the rise of populism. The EU has also conditioned Serbia’s membership on the normalization of relations with Kosovo, which is a sensitive and divisive issue for many Serbs.
Serbia’s Strategic and Pragmatic Relations with China
A third reason why Serbia cannot decide between East and West is its strategic and pragmatic relations with China. China has emerged as a new and influential player in the Balkans, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative, which aims to connect Asia, Europe, and Africa through infrastructure and trade. China has invested heavily in Serbia, especially in the energy, transport, and telecommunications sectors, and has provided loans, grants, and vaccines to Serbia. China has also supported Serbia’s position on Kosovo, and has not interfered in its domestic affairs. Serbia has welcomed China’s involvement as a way to diversify its sources of funding and cooperation, and to leverage its bargaining power with the EU and Russia. However, Serbia’s relations with China have also raised concerns in the West, as China’s growing influence could undermine the EU’s norms and standards, and challenge the US’s security interests in the region.
Conclusion
Serbia is a country that faces a difficult and complex dilemma: whether to align itself with the East or the West, or to maintain a balanced and neutral position. Serbia has historical and cultural reasons to stay close to Russia, economic and political reasons to join the EU, and strategic and pragmatic reasons to cooperate with China. However, each of these options has its own costs and benefits, and none of them can fully satisfy Serbia’s needs and aspirations. Therefore, Serbia has adopted a swing policy, which tries to maximize its gains and minimize its losses from each partner, without committing to any of them. This policy has enabled Serbia to enjoy a degree of flexibility and autonomy, but it has also exposed it to risks and uncertainties, as the geopolitical competition and tensions between the East and the West intensify. Serbia’s swing policy also has implications for the stability and security of the Balkans, as well as for the interests and influence of the global powers. The question is: how long can Serbia keep swinging, and what will be the consequences of its choice?
