Why Russia’s Claim About the Plane Crash is Not Credible
On January 24, 2024, a Russian military plane crashed in the Belgorod region near the Ukrainian border, killing all 74 people on board. Russia claimed that the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war for a swap, and that Ukraine shot down the plane with missiles supplied by the West. Ukraine denied any involvement and called for an independent investigation. In this essay, I will argue that Russia’s claim is not credible and is likely a pretext for further aggression.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been ongoing since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine. Despite several ceasefires and diplomatic efforts, the violence has escalated in recent months, with Russia amassing tens of thousands of troops and heavy weapons along the border. The international community has condemned Russia’s actions and imposed sanctions, while also providing military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
On January 24, 2024, a tragic incident added more fuel to the fire. A Russian IL-76 military plane crashed in the Belgorod region of Russia, near the Ukrainian border, killing all 74 people on board. According to Russian state media, the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian servicemen who were being flown to Belgorod ahead of a prisoner swap. Russia accused Ukraine of shooting down the plane with missiles supplied by the West, and threatened to retaliate. Ukraine denied any involvement and called for an independent investigation, saying that Russia was lying and trying to justify its invasion of Ukraine.
My thesis is that Russia’s claim is not credible and is likely a pretext for further aggression. I will support my argument by pointing out the inconsistencies, contradictions, and implausibilities of Russia’s story, and by using the main points an interview with retired US Army Major Mike Lyons, a military expert and CNN analyst, who gives his reaction to Russia’s claim. Lyons points out the flaws and dangers of Russia’s claim, and warns of the potential consequences of Russia’s actions.
Inconsistencies in Russia’s Claim
The first reason why Russia’s claim is not credible is that it contradicts the evidence from the crash site, such as the location, the debris, and the eyewitness accounts. According to CNN, the plane crashed 5 to 6 kilometers (about 3 to 3.7 miles) from the village of Yablonovo in the Korocha district of Belgorod region, which is about 40 kilometers (25 miles) from the border. This means that the plane was well within Russian territory, and not in the disputed airspace near the border. Moreover, the debris of the plane was scattered over a large area, indicating that the plane exploded in mid-air, rather than being hit by a missile. Furthermore, the eyewitnesses from the village reported hearing a loud bang and seeing a fireball in the sky, but did not see any missile trails or other signs of an attack.
Russia’s claim also does not make sense logically. Why would Ukraine shoot down a plane that was carrying their own prisoners, who were supposed to be released in a swap? Why would Russia announce the prisoner swap before it happened, and risk exposing the plane to enemy fire? Why would Ukraine use missiles supplied by the West, which would leave traces and implicate their allies? These questions cast doubt on Russia’s claim, and suggest that Russia is lying or covering up something.
Contradictions in Russia’s Story
The second reason why Russia’s claim is not credible is that it changes over time, and contradicts their previous statements and actions. According to CNN, Russia initially said that the plane was carrying 74 people, including 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, six crew members, and three accompanying personnel. Later, Russia changed the number of prisoners to 80, and said that there was a second plane, also an IL-76, that was diverted. Russia also said that the Ukrainian leadership was well aware of the impending exchange and was informed of how the prisoners would be delivered. However, this contradicts Russia’s previous denial of holding any Ukrainian prisoners of war, and their refusal to engage in any prisoner swaps with Ukraine. Russia also contradicted itself by saying that the plane was shot down by three missiles, either with anti-aircraft missile systems or Patriot, or with German-made IRIS. However, these are different types of missiles, with different ranges and capabilities, and it is unlikely that Ukraine would have access to all of them.
Russia’s story is also inconsistent with their own military capabilities. Why would Russia use an outdated plane, such as the IL-76, which was first introduced in 1975, and has a payload of more than 50 tons, to transport prisoners of war? Why would Russia lose a second plane that was diverted, and not report it earlier? How could Russia not detect or prevent the alleged missile attack, given their advanced air defense systems and their dominance in the region? These questions raise suspicion about Russia’s story, and suggest that Russia is hiding or fabricating something.
Implausibilities of Russia’s Scenario
Russia’s scenario is consistent with their pattern of behavior and propaganda. Russia has a history of lying and spreading misinformation about its involvement in Ukraine, such as denying its role in the annexation of Crimea, the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, and the poisoning of Alexei Navalny. Russia’s claim about the plane crash fits into this narrative, and is likely a part of their strategy to destabilize and weaken their opponents, and to advance their interests and influence.
