Why Are There So Many Wars at the Moment?

The year 2023 has been marked by an unprecedented surge of wars and conflicts around the world, claiming hundreds of thousands of lives, displacing millions of people, and threatening global peace and security. From the Middle East to Africa, from Europe to Asia, and from Latin America to the Pacific, no region has been spared from the scourge of violence and instability. The question that many people are asking is: why are there so many wars at the moment? What are the factors that are driving these conflicts, and what can be done to prevent or resolve them?

There is no simple or single answer to this question, as each conflict has its own history, context, and dynamics. However, some common themes and patterns can be identified.

One of the main causes of the current wave of conflicts is the rise of regional tensions and rivalries, fueled by historical, ethnic, religious, or ideological disputes. Many of the conflicts today are rooted in the legacy of colonialism, nationalism, or sectarianism, which have created deep divisions and animosities between neighboring countries or groups. For example, the Israel-Palestine conflict, which erupted in May 2023 after Israel launched airstrikes on Gaza in response to rocket attacks by Hamas, is a result of the long-standing struggle over land, identity, and sovereignty, as well as the influence of external actors, such as the US, Iran, and Turkey. Similarly, the war in Ukraine, which escalated in February 2022 after Russia invaded and annexed the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, is a consequence of the historical and cultural ties between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the geopolitical competition between Russia and the West, especially NATO and the EU.

Another major cause of the current conflicts is the breakdown of the rule of law and the lack of effective governance in some countries, which creates a vacuum for corruption, crime, and violence. Many of the conflicts today are driven by the failure of the state institutions to provide basic services, security, and justice to the population, leading to widespread discontent, protest, and rebellion. For example, the war in Afghanistan, which resumed in August 2022 after the US and NATO withdrew their troops, ending their 20-year military presence, is a result of the weakness and corruption of the Afghan government, which was unable to resist the Taliban’s takeover of most of the country. Similarly, the civil war in Yemen, which started in 2014 after the Houthi rebels ousted the internationally recognized government, is a result of the poor governance and economic mismanagement of the former regime, which alienated and marginalized large segments of the society, especially the Zaidi Shia minority.

A third cause of the current conflicts is the co-option or absence of the state institutions by external actors, who either support or undermine the legitimacy and authority of the government. Many of the conflicts today are exacerbated by the involvement or interference of foreign powers, who back different factions or militias, often with conflicting agendas and interests. For example, the civil war in Libya, which began in 2011 after the overthrow of Muammar Gaddafi, is worsened by the intervention of Turkey, Russia, Egypt, and the UAE, who support different sides in the power struggle, undermining the UN-led peace process. Similarly, the conflict in the Sahel region of Africa, which involves several countries, such as Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Chad, is aggravated by the presence of various armed groups, such as al-Qaeda, ISIS, and Boko Haram, who exploit the weak governance and security of the region, and receive support from external sponsors, such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia.

A fourth cause of the current conflicts is the illicit economic gain from the control or exploitation of the natural resources or illegal markets of a country or region. Many of the conflicts today are motivated by the greed and profit of the warring parties, who seek to gain access to or dominate the resources or markets, such as oil, minerals, drugs, or arms. For example, the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which has been ongoing since 1996, is fueled by the competition over the mineral-rich eastern provinces, where armed groups and neighboring countries profit from the illegal mining and trade of coltan, gold, and diamonds. Similarly, the conflict in Colombia, which has been ongoing since 1964, is fueled by the involvement of various actors, such as the FARC, the ELN, the paramilitaries, and the drug cartels, who benefit from the production and trafficking of cocaine, as well as the extraction of oil and coal.

A fifth cause of the current conflicts is the scarcity of resources exacerbated by climate change, which reduces the availability of water, food, and land. Many of the conflicts today are triggered or worsened by the effects of climate change, such as drought, flooding, desertification, or crop failure, which increase the competition and violence between different groups over the access to and distribution of the resources. For example, the conflict in Syria, which started in 2011 after a popular uprising against the Assad regime, is partly caused by the severe drought that affected the country between 2006 and 2011, which forced millions of people to migrate from rural to urban areas, creating social and economic pressures and tensions. Similarly, the conflict in Sudan, which started in 2003 after a rebellion in the Darfur region, is partly caused by the desertification of the land, which increased the conflict and violence between the Arab nomads and the African farmers over the grazing and farming areas.

These are some of the main causes of the current conflicts, but there are also other factors, such as the spread of misinformation, the proliferation of weapons, the rise of extremism, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, that contribute to the complexity and severity of the situation. The question then is: what can be done to prevent or resolve these conflicts? There is no easy or quick solution, as each conflict requires a tailored and comprehensive approach, involving multiple actors and levels. However, some general principles and strategies can be suggested, such as:

• Strengthening the role and capacity of the UN and other multilateral organizations, such as the African Union or the European Union, to mediate, monitor, and enforce peace agreements, as well as to provide humanitarian aid and development assistance. The UN and its agencies, such as the Security Council, the General Assembly, the Peacekeeping Operations, and the Human Rights Council, have a vital role to play in addressing the root causes and consequences of the conflicts, and in promoting dialogue and cooperation between the conflicting parties, as well as between the regional and international stakeholders. However, the UN and its organs often face challenges and limitations, such as the lack of political will, resources, or legitimacy, which hamper their effectiveness and credibility. Therefore, it is essential to reform and revitalize the UN and its mechanisms, to make them more representative, responsive, and accountable, and to ensure their compliance with the principles and norms of international law and human rights.
• Supporting the democratic transition and reform of the state institutions, such as the security sector, the judiciary, and the civil society, to ensure the respect for human rights, the rule of law, and the participation of all segments of the society, especially women and youth. Many of the conflicts today are caused or exacerbated by the absence or erosion of democracy and good governance, which create a sense of injustice, exclusion, and frustration among the population, and undermine the legitimacy and authority of the government. Therefore, it is crucial to support the processes and initiatives that aim to restore or establish democracy and good governance, such as elections, constitutional reforms, anti-corruption measures, and human rights protection. Moreover, it is important to empower and engage the civil society, especially the women and youth, who are often the most affected by the conflicts, but also the most active and creative in finding solutions and building peace.
• Investing in the economic and social development of the conflict-affected areas, such as by creating jobs, improving infrastructure, providing education and health services, and protecting the environment. Many of the conflicts today are fueled or worsened by the poverty, inequality, and underdevelopment of the regions, which create a vicious cycle of violence and instability. Therefore, it is vital to invest in the economic and social development of the regions, to break the cycle and create a virtuous cycle of peace and prosperity. This can be done by creating opportunities and incentives for the people, especially the youth, to engage in productive and meaningful activities, such as entrepreneurship, innovation, and education, and by providing them with the necessary skills, resources, and support. Furthermore, it is essential to protect and preserve the environment, which is the source of life and livelihood for many people, and which is increasingly threatened by the effects of climate change and human activities. This can be done by promoting and implementing sustainable and resilient practices, such as renewable energy, water management, and reforestation, and by raising awareness and education about the importance and benefits of environmental conservation and restoration.

These are some of the possible ways to prevent or resolve the current conflicts, but there are also other measures and actions that can be taken, such as raising awareness and education about the causes and consequences of the conflicts, as well as the benefits of peace and cooperation, among the public and the media, to foster a culture of tolerance, diversity, and non-violence. The main point is that there is no single or simple solution to the problem of war, but rather a combination of multiple and complementary solutions, that require the commitment and collaboration of all the actors and stakeholders,