Why Alexandre Orlov is wrong about Russia’s victory in Ukraine

Alexandre Orlov, a former Russian ambassador to France, recently claimed in an interview with Europe 1 that Vladimir Putin has won the war in Ukraine. He argued that the Ukrainian army is running out of manpower and resources, while the Russian-backed separatists are on the defensive and have no interest in conquering more territory. He also dismissed the international condemnation of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, saying that it has always been Russian.

However, Orlov’s assertions are based on false or misleading information, and ignore the reality of the situation on the ground and the wider implications of the conflict. Here are some of the reasons why Orlov is wrong:

• The Ukrainian army is not collapsing. Contrary to Orlov’s claim, the Ukrainian army has not run out of soldiers or weapons. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, as of December 2023, the Ukrainian armed forces had about 255,000 active personnel, and another 900,000 reservists. The Ukrainian army has also received significant military assistance from the United States and other NATO allies, including anti-tank missiles, drones, radars, and training. Moreover, the Ukrainian army has shown resilience and determination in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity, despite suffering heavy casualties and setbacks in the early stages of the war.
• The Russian-backed separatists are not on the defensive. Orlov’s claim that the separatists are only defending their positions and have no intention of expanding their control is contradicted by the evidence of their repeated violations of the ceasefire agreements and their attempts to seize strategic locations. For instance, in January 2017, the separatists launched a major offensive against the Ukrainian-held town of Avdiivka, which is located near the Donetsk filtration station. The attack resulted in dozens of deaths and injuries, and forced thousands of civilians to flee. The separatists have also tried to gain more territory and resources by attacking other areas in the gray zone or demilitarized zone, such as Zolote and Shyrokyne.
• The annexation of Crimea is not legitimate. Orlov’s assertion that Crimea has always been Russian and that its annexation was justified by a referendum is a blatant distortion of history and international law. Crimea was part of the Ottoman Empire for centuries, until it was annexed by Russia in 1783. It was then transferred to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic in 1954 by Nikita Khrushchev, a move that was accepted by both Moscow and Kiev. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Crimea remained part of independent Ukraine, and its status was recognized by Russia and the international community. The referendum that was held in March 2014, after Russian troops invaded and occupied the peninsula, was illegal and illegitimate, as it violated the Ukrainian constitution and international norms. The referendum was also marred by intimidation, propaganda, and fraud, and its results were not credible. The United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution in March 2014, with 100 votes in favor, 11 against, and 58 abstentions, affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity and rejecting the annexation of Crimea by Russia.
• The war in Ukraine is not over. Orlov’s claim that the war in Ukraine is nearing its end and that a peace agreement is possible is wishful thinking at best, and deception at worst.

In conclusion, Alexandre Orlov’s interview with Europe 1 is full of falsehoods and propaganda, and does not reflect the reality of the war in Ukraine. His statements are aimed at justifying Russia’s illegal and aggressive actions, and at undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. His claims are also an insult to the victims and the survivors of the war, and to the international community that supports Ukraine’s democratic and European aspirations. The war in Ukraine is not over, and Russia has not won. The only way to end the war and to achieve a lasting and peaceful solution is to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, to implement the Minsk agreements in full, and to hold Russia accountable for its violations of international law and human rights.