What is Modern Deterrence and Why Does It Matter?
Deterrence is a simple concept that aims to dissuade an adversary from taking an aggressive action by convincing them that the costs would outweigh the potential gains. For decades, NATO has largely relied on conventional and nuclear capabilities to maintain deterrence. But this approach is less relevant in the current security environment, where threats are more likely to come from ambiguous or non-state actors and to remain below the threshold of military conflict.
To adapt to the changing nature of the threats facing the Euro-Atlantic community, NATO and individual nations need to internalize the concept of “modern deterrence” and develop a credible response that includes whole-of-government and whole-of-society tools. Modern deterrence involves combining military, diplomatic, economic, informational, legal, and social elements to create a multidimensional and adaptive deterrent effect that can counter a range of sub-conventional actions, such as cyberattacks, disinformation, economic coercion, political interference, proxy warfare, and the use of ambiguous forces. Modern deterrence also requires strengthening the resilience of societies against hybrid, cyber, terrorist, or other attacks that aim to destabilize or intimidate them, by investing in capabilities and technologies that can enhance situational awareness, attribution, and response options. Modern deterrence finally demands communicating effectively with allies, partners, adversaries, and the public to establish the credibility, consistency, and transparency of the deterrent posture, and to send a clear and consistent message that any aggression, whether conventional or sub-conventional, will be met with a swift and effective response.
Modern deterrence is not a new idea, but it has gained renewed attention in recent years due to the changing nature of the threats facing the Euro-Atlantic community. Russia, in particular, has demonstrated its willingness and ability to use a range of sub-conventional means to achieve its strategic objectives, such as in Ukraine, Georgia, and the Baltic states. These means include cyberattacks, disinformation, economic coercion, political interference, proxy warfare, and the use of ambiguous forces. Russia’s strategy is designed to exploit the gaps and weaknesses in NATO’s conventional and nuclear deterrence, and to avoid triggering a decisive response from the Alliance.
To counter the strategy of China and Russia, who seek to exploit the gaps and weaknesses in NATO’s conventional and nuclear deterrence, and to avoid triggering a decisive response from the Alliance, NATO and its members need to adopt a more comprehensive and integrated approach to deterrence, one that goes beyond the traditional military domain and involves all aspects of national and collective security. This means investing in capabilities and technologies that can enhance situational awareness, attribution, and response options in the face of sub-conventional threats, such as cyberattacks, disinformation, economic coercion, political interference, proxy warfare, and the use of ambiguous forces. It also means developing a common understanding and doctrine of modern deterrence among allies, and ensuring that the political will and public support are in place to implement it. It further means engaging with partners and stakeholders, such as the European Union, civil society, and the private sector, to foster cooperation and coordination on modern deterrence issues. And it ultimately means sending a clear and consistent message to potential adversaries that any aggression, whether conventional or sub-conventional, will be met with a swift and effective response, backed by a credible and adaptable mix of military, diplomatic, economic, informational, legal, and social elements.
Modern deterrence is not a panacea for all the security challenges facing the Euro-Atlantic community, but it is a necessary and realistic framework for addressing them. By embracing modern deterrence, NATO and its members can demonstrate their unity, resolve, and adaptability in the face of a complex and dynamic threat environment.
