Venezuela Votes to Annex Guyana: What Next?

On Sunday, December 3, 2023, Venezuela held a controversial referendum asking its citizens whether they agreed with the idea of annexing the Essequibo region, a territory that is currently controlled by neighboring Guyana. The referendum, which was initiated by President Nicolás Maduro, consisted of five questions that aimed to validate Venezuela’s historical claim to the disputed area, which is rich in natural resources, especially oil. According to the Venezuelan government, more than 95% of the voters said yes to all the questions, giving Maduro a green light to pursue his plan of creating a new Venezuelan state called Guayana Esequiba.

But what is the background of this territorial dispute, and what are the implications of the referendum for the region and the world? In this blog post, we will explain why Venezuela is suddenly so interested in this territory, how the referendum was conducted and received, and what might happen next.

Why Essequibo?

The Essequibo region is a vast area of about 159,500 square kilometers (61,600 square miles) that lies west of the Essequibo River, which forms part of the border between Venezuela and Guyana. The region is mostly covered by rainforest and has a population of about 120,000 people, mostly of indigenous and Afro-Guyanese origin.

The origin of the dispute dates back to the colonial era, when Venezuela and Guyana were part of the Spanish and British empires, respectively. In 1899, an international arbitration tribunal in Paris awarded the territory to Britain, which incorporated it into its colony of British Guiana. Venezuela rejected the award, claiming that it was the result of a political deal between Britain and Russia, and that it violated the principle of uti possidetis, which states that former colonies should inherit the borders of their former colonial powers.

Since then, Venezuela has maintained its claim to the Essequibo region, even after Guyana became independent in 1966. In 1966, the two countries signed the Geneva Agreement, which established a mechanism to find a peaceful and satisfactory solution to the controversy, but no progress has been made. In 2018, Guyana took the case to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the highest judicial organ of the United Nations, to confirm the validity of the 1899 award. Venezuela, however, refused to recognize the jurisdiction of the ICJ, arguing that the Geneva Agreement did not authorize such a move.

The dispute gained new momentum in 2015, when ExxonMobil, a US oil giant, discovered a huge offshore oil field in the Stabroek Block, which lies within Guyana’s exclusive economic zone, but also within Venezuela’s claimed maritime boundary. Since then, ExxonMobil has made more than 20 discoveries in the area, estimating the total recoverable oil reserves at about 11 billion barrels, making Guyana one of the most promising oil producers in the world.

The oil bonanza has transformed Guyana’s economy, which grew by 62% in 2020 and is expected to grow by another 37% in 2021, making it the fastest-growing economy in the world. The country, which has a population of about 800,000 people and a GDP per capita of about $60,000, hopes to use the oil revenues to improve its social and infrastructural development, and to become a leader in renewable energy and environmental protection.

Venezuela, on the other hand, has been suffering from a severe economic and political crisis, exacerbated by US sanctions and the COVID-19 pandemic. The country, which has the largest proven oil reserves in the world, has seen its oil production and exports plummet due to mismanagement, corruption, and lack of investment. The country, which has a population of about 28 million people and a GDP per capita of about $3,000, faces hyperinflation, shortages of food, medicine, and fuel, and widespread poverty and violence.

Maduro, who has been in power since 2013, has faced several challenges to his legitimacy, both domestically and internationally. In 2019, Juan Guaidó, the leader of the opposition-controlled National Assembly, declared himself interim president, claiming that Maduro’s 2018 re-election was fraudulent. Guaidó was recognized by more than 50 countries, including the US, the UK, and most of Latin America and Europe, as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. However, Maduro, who still has the support of the military, Russia, China, Cuba, and Iran, has managed to cling to power, despite several attempts to oust him.

How was the referendum conducted and received?

The referendum, which was announced by Maduro in October 2023, was widely seen as a political maneuver to rally his supporters and distract from the domestic problems. The referendum was also seen as a way to challenge the ICJ, which is expected to issue a ruling on the case in 2024, and to pressure Guyana to negotiate a bilateral settlement that would give Venezuela a share of the oil wealth.

The referendum was held on December 3, 2023, along with regional and municipal elections that were boycotted by most of the opposition parties, which denounced them as rigged and illegitimate. The referendum consisted of five questions, which asked the voters whether they agreed to:

• Reject the 1899 award, which they claimed was fraudulent and deprived Venezuela of its Essequibo territory.
• Support the 1966 agreement, which they claimed was the only valid legal instrument to resolve the dispute.
• Reject the jurisdiction of the ICJ, which they claimed was biased and had no authority to decide the case.
• Oppose Guyana’s claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea area that was pending delimitation, which they claimed was illegal and violated international law.
• Agree with the creation of the Guayana Esequiba state and the development of a plan to grant citizenship and identity cards to the current and future population of the territory, which they claimed was in accordance with the 1966 agreement and international law, and to incorporate the state on the map of Venezuela.

According to the National Electoral Council (CNE), which is controlled by Maduro’s allies, the turnout was 67.8%, and more than 95% of the voters said yes to all the questions. Maduro hailed the result as a “historic victory” and a “mandate of the people” to defend Venezuela’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He also said that he would send a letter to the UN Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, to inform him of the referendum and to request his good offices to facilitate a dialogue with Guyana.

However, the referendum was widely rejected by Guyana, the opposition, the international community, and civil society groups, which questioned its legality, legitimacy, and validity. They argued that the referendum was unconstitutional, since it violated Article 5 of the Venezuelan Constitution, which states that “the national territory is indivisible and its borders are those established in the Constitution of 1961”. They also argued that the referendum was illegal, since it violated Article 33 of the Organic Law of Referendums, which states that “the subject of a referendum must be of national interest, not contrary to the Constitution, the law, or international treaties”.

Guyana, which summoned the Venezuelan ambassador to express its “deep concern” over the referendum, condemned it as a “flagrant violation of international law and the Geneva Agreement”. It also appealed to the ICJ to intervene and to issue a provisional measure to order Venezuela to refrain from any action that would alter the status quo of the territory. The ICJ, which held a hearing on the case on December 1, 2023, issued a statement on December 5, 2023, saying that it “observes that the situation that currently prevails in the territory in dispute is that Guyana administers and exercises control over that area” and that it “orders both parties to refrain from any action that might aggravate or extend the dispute before the Court or make it more difficult to resolve”.

The opposition, which denounced the referendum as a “farce” and a “distraction”, called on the people to abstain from voting and to protest against Maduro’s regime. According to the opposition, the real turnout was less than 30%, and the results were manipulated and inflated by the CNE. The opposition also said that the referendum was a “provocation” and a “threat” to Guyana and the region, and that it would not recognize its outcome.

The international community, which has been closely following the situation in Venezuela and Guyana, also expressed its rejection and concern over the referendum. The US, the UK, the EU, the OAS, the Lima Group, and several Latin American and Caribbean countries issued statements condemning the referendum as a “violation of international law and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Guyana”. They also reaffirmed their support for the ICJ as the competent and impartial authority to settle the dispute, and urged Venezuela to respect its decision.

Civil society groups, such as human rights organizations, environmental activists, indigenous associations, and academic institutions, also criticized the referendum as a “dangerous and irresponsible” move that could escalate the conflict and jeopardize the peace and stability of the region