Unseen Vulnerabilities: The Drone Attacks Shaking Putin’s Regime

The year 2023 has been a tumultuous one for Russian President Vladimir Putin, with a series of drone attacks in Moscow adding to the challenges he’s been facing. These incidents, coupled with the visible weakening of Putin’s hold on power, have led many to question whether this could be the beginning of the end for Putin’s regime.

On May 30th, 2023, two people were injured by a drone that penetrated the airspace over Moscow and crashed into a wealthy residential building. This incident came just two weeks after two unarmed drones exploded over the Kremlin, 24 hours ahead of Russia’s Victory Day Celebrations. Russian officials were quick to blame these strikes on Kiev, claiming they were an assassination attempt on Putin himself.

Despite the Russian government’s attempts to downplay these attacks as insignificant, there is a growing sense of unease among the Russian public. The drone strikes, along with the visible weakening of Putin’s hold on power, have led many to question whether this could be the beginning of the end for Putin’s regime.

The information available about the drone attacks is limited, and what can be reliably assessed comes from reading between the lines of Russian state media, social media footage, official statements, and eyewitness accounts. On May 30th, there were three confirmed drone strikes in Russia. One hit a residential building on the outskirts of the city, a second struck a high-rise apartment block, while a third smashed into another high-rise building.

Not all eight drones, which were fired at Moscow, hit their targets. Five were intercepted by Russian Panzer air defense batteries, which had been installed earlier this year. Soft kill systems, which targeted the drones’ delicate sensors, communication arrays, and guidance and electronic systems, were also employed and reportedly downed about three more.

The drone attacks were not isolated incidents. Since the start of the calendar year, there have been more than 60 such strikes over the past six months, most of them on military depots and air bases in the neighboring Crimean, Belgard, and Bryansk regions. There have also been a series of drone strikes against air bases in the Ryazan, Saratov, and Kursk regions. Multiple drone attacks have been filmed on Russian ships moored in the Black Sea, as well as reports of attacks on Russian pipelines and oil refineries near Novorossiysk, one of Russia’s biggest oil export hubs.

The attacks on Moscow were different. Unlike the attacks in the military sphere, these drones, which struck civilian targets, caused minor damage because all but one had been stripped of their warheads. Rather than inflict heavy collateral damage, the attacks were meant to send a message that Ukraine, which has not claimed responsibility for the strikes, has both the capacity and will to strike back at the capital of its enemy invader.

The wealthy suburbs of Moscow, where the drones hit, are home to the families of prominent oligarchs and political elites, Russia’s civilian upper crust. These are the key pillars of support for Putin’s regime. The attacks were meant to sow doubt and discord among Putin’s followers at a critical time.

The drone attacks, along with the visible weakening of Putin’s hold on power, have led many to question whether this could be the beginning of the end for Putin’s regime. The drone attacks have demonstrated Putin’s weakness. The key to Putin’s survival is absolute, relentless control. The drone attacks, like the Wagner mutiny, have punctured that myth, leaving Putin weak, vulnerable, and even more dangerous.

The drone attacks have also raised questions about Moscow’s air defense capabilities. Some experts claim that even though the majority of the drones were shot down, the fact that a few got through indicated to Kiev that Moscow was vulnerable to air attack. These are symbolic attacks, meant to strike the Russian psyche, the unfounded air of invincibility they themselves have drawn over their own people for long. They have felt they were untouchable, but no longer.

War is now at Russia’s doorstep. The jury is still out whether or not it can actually defend itself. But what is clear is that the drone attacks, coupled with the visible weakening of Putin’s hold on power, have led many to question whether this could be the beginning of the end for Putin’s regime.