Unraveling Control: Putin, His ‘Warlords’, and the Escalating Ukrainian Crisis
With the Ukrainian crisis escalating, it is evident that the status quo is changing. The prevalent narrative that has been propagated is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing control of his ‘warlords’. This perspective was recently put forward by Lt. General Ben Hodges, a retired American General and a seasoned military officer with a career spanning 38 years in the U.S. Army, who has served in Iraq and Afghanistan and has also been the commander of the U.S. Army in Europe from 2014 to 2017. In his interview with Times Radio, he detailed the shifting balance of power, the role of warlords, and the potential trajectory of the conflict.
The underlying premise of Hodges’ argument revolves around the condition and readiness of the Russian soldiers stationed in the trenches and bunkers. He presents a compelling argument that the soldiers are undertrained, underprepared, and undisciplined, and hence, there lies the potential of the existing order cracking open, threatening the stability of Putin’s hold over his forces.
Hodges’ perspective stems from an evaluation of recent events that have seen the momentum of the conflict shift towards Ukraine’s side. The country is seemingly preparing for a counter-offensive, which, according to Hodges, is likely to happen soon. This viewpoint is further bolstered by the increased support for Ukraine from other nations like the UK and Germany, who have committed to providing resources to aid the Ukrainian cause.
The situation has further deteriorated for Russia with the incursions into Russia itself, particularly in the Belgorod region. These incursions were led by forces of the International Legion in Ukraine. Hodges interprets this as a significant development, as it presents the potential for internal divisions within Russia that could serve to further weaken Putin’s grip on power.
While the exact origins and motivations behind these incursions are not entirely clear, Hodges points out that they could potentially be Russian fighters who have aligned themselves with the Ukrainian cause. Alternatively, they could also be individuals seeking to exploit the ongoing conflict for their own ends. Regardless of the motivations, Hodges views these incursions as a distraction that could force the Kremlin to divert resources, thus creating potential opportunities for Ukraine to press its advantage.
Further muddying the waters is the emergence of groups like the Freedom of Russia Legion and the Russian Volunteer Corps. The impact these groups could have on the conflict is dependent on how seriously Russia perceives the threat they pose. If these groups succeed in pulling resources away from the Ukrainian frontline, this could give Ukraine an even greater advantage.
However, it is important to remember that the situation on the ground is far from simple. The frontline of Russia is not like Moscow; the control of the government does not extend 100% to every small village or town. The potential for anti-Kremlin sentiment and independent action is high in these areas, which could further contribute to the decentralization of power.
Amidst the complexity of the conflict, there have also been alarming reports of Russia launching attacks on medical clinics in Nepro, an act that could potentially qualify as a war crime. Hodges is optimistic about the perpetrators being held accountable and believes that making the public and international community aware of the identities of the individuals involved could serve to deter such actions in the future.
Adding to this, Hodges advocates for changes to U.S policy to make it easier to bring war criminals to justice. Specifically, he proposes that the U.S join the International Criminal Court (ICC) and support it in its mandate to prosecute individuals for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide. He suggests that the U.S Secretary of Defense should support the ICC in the collection of evidence to help them investigate these potential war crimes.
Looking forward, Hodges predicts an impending Ukrainian counter-offensive. He believes that it will occur when the Ukrainian forces are ready, the Russian forces have been sufficiently weakened, and the ground conditions are favorable. This operation will likely involve combined arms, i.e., mechanized infantry, tanks, engineers, artillery, and air defense, all moving in concert to apply overwhelming combat power on a very narrow front.
The Ukrainian crisis is at a pivotal moment. The narrative that Putin is losing control of his ‘warlords’ is reflective of the evolving dynamics on the ground. The insights provided by Lt. General Ben Hodges offer a compelling perspective on the conflict, suggesting that we may indeed be entering into a new phase of the war. However, the situation remains volatile and complex, with many variables at play. In the face of such uncertainties, the world watches and waits as the future of Ukraine hangs in the balance.
