Understanding the Ukrainian Crisis: A Closer Look at Strategies and Implications

The Dilemma of Nuclear Threats

The specter of escalating conflict in Ukraine and Russia’s potential use of nuclear weaponry are crucial elements of the current geopolitical landscape. Even the possibility of Russia moving up to the nuclear threshold is a matter of global concern. While it remains uncertain whether Putin would resort to utilizing Russia’s additional military assets against Ukraine, like enhanced airstrikes or the full weight of Russia’s aviation forces, the silence on this front raises intriguing questions.

The absence of such drastic measures may hint that either these assets are not up to the standard that was initially believed or Putin has deliberately refrained from introducing them into the conflict. Perhaps these resources were not necessary, given the tactical objectives of the Russian forces positioned in the south and east of Ukraine.

The Shift in Ukrainian Strategy

In the face of these potential threats, Ukraine has begun pushing back. A series of “shaping operations” has started to unfold over the past weeks. These operations have leveraged long-range attacks against Russian logistical infrastructure and forces. Ukraine has effectively utilized weapons provided by Western allies, such as the Storm Shadow missiles from the United Kingdom and the HiMARS systems from the United States, to exert both tactical and strategic pressure.

The tempo of this pushback changed last week when Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskiy announced the initiation of a counter-offensive. This move had been kept in secret to prevent the divulgence of Ukrainian battle plans to Russian forces. This counter-offensive is now in full swing, marking a turning point in the conflict.

Ukraine’s Battle Plan and Western Support

Unraveling Ukraine’s battle plan at this stage is challenging, but what is clear is the central role of geography. Russian forces have seized territory southeast of the country, north of Crimea, and in Donetsk, an area commonly known as the Donbass. Ukraine’s objective is to expel Russian forces from these occupied territories, which also include Crimea. The abhorrent atrocities committed by Russia, particularly north of Kiev in February and March, have intensified the Ukrainian resolve to entirely remove Russia from Ukrainian territory.

However, the capacity of Ukraine to achieve this objective remains an open question. A glimmer of hope arises from the increasing provision of Western military aid to Ukraine, which has seen larger numbers of Western tanks being deployed, including the Challenger from the UK and the Leopard from Germany. These reinforcements, along with the Storm Shadow cruise missile system and the HiMARS rocket artillery system, are now being brought into action.

Fronts of Conflict and Early Victories

It seems Ukraine has established two main fronts: one towards the east near Bakhmut and another to the south. The latter is a strategic attempt to regain control over the land bridge that Russia has established between Crimea and other occupied territories. Ukraine is expected to make a significant push towards Donetsk and, more importantly, southwards.

Ukraine’s strategy might include disrupting the land bridge north of the Sea of Azov, effectively isolating Crimea from Russia. This move depends on several variables, such as incapacitating the Kerch Strait Bridge and securing enough troops to hold the regained land bridge.

Meanwhile, Ukraine feels the pressure to demonstrate victories, however small, to its Western backers to prove its capacity for breakthroughs. Recent reports have revealed that Ukrainian forces have recaptured a number of small towns and villages in Donetsk, including Nech and Kuchner.

The Challenges Ahead

Despite these early successes, the Ukrainians still face a massive task. They will need to take control of larger settlements along the land bridge, such as Top Mac and Melatopol, which host sizeable populations. Urban warfare is notoriously difficult, and seizing these areas will be key to regaining control of the territory and disrupting the land bridge occupied by the Russians.

This part of the operation only considers the land bridge. The Donbass region, east of the country, presents an entirely different challenge. However, Ukraine might be counting on a strategic follow-on effect. If they can seize control of the land bridge and potentially break the will of the Russian forces to continue their occupation of Crimea, this could force the Russians into a defensive posture, ultimately leading to their defeat.

Nuclear Weapons and Russia’s Stance

A topic that can’t be overlooked when examining this conflict is the matter of nuclear weapons. While doubts have been expressed about Russia’s intention to use tactical nuclear weapons, such a possibility can’t be entirely dismissed. In the midst of this uncertainty, the goal must be to equip Ukraine with the necessary forces to secure a victory, while also understanding that the decision to carry the conflict to its logical conclusion rests with Ukraine.

In the broader picture, Russia has recently suspended its participation in the New START Treaty, marking the end of the last remaining arms control agreement between Russia and America. This move underlines the widely accepted notion that we are indeed witnessing a new Cold War, propelling us towards a renewed global nuclear arms race.

The Deterioration of Arms Control and International Relations

The gradual withdrawal of Russia from the arms control treaties established during and immediately after the Cold War is indicative of the worsening strategic environment on a global level, but particularly in Europe. Europe, where the rules-based International System was thought to be most effective, now faces a plethora of issues as it did during the Cold War.

This shift also reflects the overall deterioration of the international environment, a factor recognized in the defense and security reviews of major global powers, including the UK, Australia, Japan, and the US. This bleak reality is also linked to Russia’s activities in Eastern Europe. However, it’s crucial to resist acting in ways that Russia wants us to act, for fear of destabilizing Ukraine and preventing it from securing a victory.

A Precarious International Landscape

The world’s current state appears to be precarious. Aside from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there have been attempts by other countries, such as Iran and North Korea, to pursue nuclear weapons. The People’s Republic of China has also been working to modernize and extend its nuclear forces.

This flurry of activity may signal the beginning of a period as volatile as the early days of the Cold War in the 1940s and 1950s. Yet, we lack the alliance infrastructure that was established in the late 1940s and early 1950s, such as NATO, which was designed to secure democracies. As such, leaders from major countries like the UK, US, Japan, France, Germany, Poland, and Australia need to contemplate how to deter threats to our survival and interests in these critical times.

This concludes the comprehensive exploration of the conflict unfolding in Ukraine, its potential outcomes, the strategic approaches of the parties involved, and the broader geopolitical implications. The resolution of this crisis will significantly shape global politics, international relations, and security dynamics in the years to come.