Under the Waves: The Looming Crisis of Russia’s Submarine Fleet

The Russian military, once a formidable force, is facing a crisis. The country’s invasion of Ukraine has not only resulted in staggering military casualties but also exposed the profound weaknesses in its military capabilities. These weaknesses are most evident in Russia’s naval power, which is aging, corrupt, and poorly led. The situation is particularly dire for Russia’s submarine fleet, which is under serious threat.

Russia’s current fleet of 58 submarines, long considered among the most powerful in the world, is now facing a significant challenge. Despite their power, recent reports suggest that Russia’s submarine capabilities are being seriously harmed by the backlash to its invasion, especially through the crippling effect of Western sanctions.

The Russian military’s problems are not new. The country’s surface fleet has been allowed to atrophy due to factors like poor maintenance, low funding, and corruption. This trend has been on full display in recent years, with the Russian Navy suffering a number of embarrassing high-profile mishaps. Its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, has caught fire at least three times since 2018. The sinking of Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the Moskva, in April 2022, further underscored the Navy’s problems.

Despite these setbacks, Russia’s submarine fleet has remained a critical threat. The fleet includes 11 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, 17 nuclear-powered attack submarines, and nine nuclear-powered cruise missile submarines, with several more on the way next year. However, the power of these submarines may not last forever.

The sanctions imposed on Russia have begun to erode the country’s ability to resupply and maintain its military industry. In particular, the maintenance of existing submarines and the development of new ones will become increasingly difficult. The sanctions have cut Russia off from the technology required in modern submarines, and without the raw materials, Russia cannot sustain its industrial base.

The sanctions have also highlighted how much of Russia’s military industrial complex was and remains reliant on critical Western technology. Without the advanced components for submarines manufactured in the U.S, UK, France, Germany, and elsewhere, Russian development will be seriously stunted in the years to come. There are almost no alternatives to the technology which sanctions have cut Russia off from. Parts from China and Iran, for example, are not advanced enough to meet Moscow’s requirements.

The future of Russia’s submarine fleet is uncertain. One possibility is that as military resource constraints continue to grow, it will lead to prioritization of the elements which have been most impacted, especially ground forces. This will inevitably lead to cuts or limits in shipbuilding in the future. The other possibility is that Russia will be forced to funnel more investment into submarines due to their relative importance and strategic value. This will mean less and less resources for replenishing ground troops and equipment, which are both cheaper and more expendable.

Regardless of how Putin manages his growing economic constraints, the main role of Russian submarines will probably remain as a nuclear deterrent. However, as Russia’s submarines begin to break down in the coming years with no easy way to maintain them or build new state-of-the-art models, the country will become less able to project power in this way.

The longer the war goes on and the more isolated Russia becomes, the harder it will be to obtain the advanced components needed for these vessels. This will continue to erode the country’s industrial base, possibly crippling all long-term defense production. Because Russian losses in Ukraine are so heavy, Putin also faces a crisis of credibility and growing pressure to project a facade of power. This has already led to reckless, aggressive posturing by Russian submarines and a willingness to use vessels which are not even seaworthy, a problem which seems likely to increase.

In conclusion, despite the claims by the Kremlin, there are strong signs that Russia’s disastrous strategy in Ukraine has backfired even more than we know. The squeeze of Western sanctions now threatens to render even the deadly Russian submarine fleet obsolete. The stagnation of its submarine fleet will be a serious blow in the coming years. Whether sanction and battlefield losses will eventually doom Russia’s submarine fleet or Putin can find a way around these issues and keep Russia as a great power remains to be seen.