Ukraine’s New Strategy to Win the War Against Russia
The war between Ukraine and Russia, which started in 2022 when Russia invaded and annexed parts of eastern and southern Ukraine, has been one of the most devastating and complex conflicts of the 21st century. Despite the overwhelming odds, Ukraine has managed to resist and fight back against the Russian aggression, reclaiming most of its territory and defending its sovereignty and independence. However, the war is far from over, and Ukraine faces many challenges and threats from Russia and its proxies. In order to secure a lasting and decisive victory, Ukraine needs to adopt a new strategy that combines military, political, and diplomatic efforts, and that relies on the support and cooperation of the West.
Ukraine’s military strategy should focus on three main objectives: liberating the occupied territories, cutting off Russia’s supply lines, and using guerrilla tactics to sabotage and harass the Russian forces. Ukraine has already demonstrated its ability and willingness to launch offensives against the Russian occupation, as it did in 2022 when it recaptured about 82% of its territory from Russia. Ukraine is currently fighting a campaign in the south, aiming to sever the land link between Russia and Crimea, and to reclaim the rich agricultural and mineral lands that provide significant revenue for the Ukrainian government. This campaign is crucial for Ukraine’s economic and strategic interests, as well as for its moral and symbolic value, as Crimea is historically and culturally part of Ukraine.
However, the campaign has been slow and costly, as Ukraine faces strong Russian resistance, minefields, and fortifications. Ukraine has lost about 15,000 soldiers and 1,000 tanks since the war began. Moreover, Russia still controls about 18% of Ukraine, including Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and parts of Kherson and Zaporizhia4. Russia has deployed about 300,000 troops, 2,000 aircraft, and 3,000 tanks in Ukraine, and has a clear advantage in terms of air power, artillery, and electronic warfare. Therefore, Ukraine needs to adopt a more flexible and asymmetric approach, that exploits Russia’s weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and that minimizes Ukraine’s losses and costs.
One way to do this is to cut off Russia’s supply lines, which are essential for its military operations and occupation. Russia relies on a network of roads, railways, bridges, pipelines, and ports to transport troops, weapons, fuel, and other resources to and from Ukraine. These supply lines are exposed and vulnerable to attacks by Ukrainian forces, especially by special operations units, air strikes, and sea drones. By disrupting and destroying these supply lines, Ukraine can weaken Russia’s military capabilities, increase its operational costs, and reduce its morale and motivation. Furthermore, Ukraine can use guerrilla tactics to sabotage and harass the Russian forces in the occupied territories, such as planting mines and explosives, conducting ambushes and raids, and spreading propaganda and misinformation. These tactics can inflict damage and casualties on the Russian forces, undermine their control and legitimacy, and create a sense of insecurity and fear among them.
Ukraine’s political and diplomatic strategy should focus on two main objectives: maintaining and strengthening its legitimacy, morale, and international support, and countering Russia’s narrative and influence in the global arena. Ukraine faces many challenges and threats from Russia and its proxies, such as cyberattacks, propaganda campaigns, and diplomatic maneuvers, that aim to undermine Ukraine’s legitimacy, morale, and international support. Russia has been trying to portray Ukraine as a failed state, a fascist regime, and a puppet of the West, and to justify its invasion and occupation as a humanitarian intervention, a peacekeeping operation, and a historical reunification. Russia has also been using its veto power in the UN Security Council, its alliances with China, Iran, and Syria, and its economic and energy leverage over Europe, to block or weaken any resolutions or actions that condemn or sanction its aggression.
Therefore, Ukraine needs to defend and promote its image and interests in the world, and to expose and challenge Russia’s lies and aggression. Ukraine needs to demonstrate its commitment and progress in building a democratic, prosperous, and inclusive society, that respects human rights, the rule of law, and the diversity of its people. The Ukrainian government and its people needs to highlight its achievements and sacrifices in defending its sovereignty and independence, and in resisting and fighting back against the Russian aggression. Ukraine needs to mobilize and rally its people and civil society, and to foster a sense of national unity and identity, that transcends ethnic, linguistic, and regional differences. Moreover, it needs to counter Russia’s narrative and influence in the global arena, and to present its own vision and perspective on the war and its implications. Ukraine needs to expose and denounce Russia’s violations of international law and human rights, and its threats to regional and global security and stability. It needs to persuade and convince the international community, especially the West, of the urgency and importance of supporting its cause, and of opposing and deterring Russia’s aggression.
Ukraine’s strategy, however, cannot succeed without the help and cooperation of the West, especially the United States and the European Union. The West has provided substantial support to Ukraine, including military aid, economic sanctions, diplomatic recognition, and membership talks with the EU and NATO. However, they lack a coherent and long-term strategy for Ukraine, and faces some internal divisions and external pressures from Russia and its allies. The United States and the European Unio need to make clear that its goal is a Ukrainian victory and a Russian defeat, and that it is ready and willing to provide more and better support and assistance to Ukraine. They needs to provide more standardized equipment, training, mine-clearing assistance, and tactical advice to Ukraine, and to coordinate and share intelligence and information with it. They also needs to increase and expand its economic sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Russia, and to target its key sectors and individuals, as well as its allies and proxies. The west needs to reaffirm and strengthen its political and security commitments to Ukraine, and to accelerate and facilitate its integration into the EU and NATO.
The war between Ukraine and Russia is not only a war for Ukraine’s sovereignty and independence, but also a war for Europe’s security and stability, and for the world’s order and values. Ukraine has shown remarkable courage and resilience in defending and fighting for its cause, and has achieved remarkable results and progress. However, Ukraine cannot win this war alone, and needs a new strategy and a strong partner. The West has a moral and strategic obligation to support and assist Ukraine, and to oppose and deter Russia. Together, Ukraine and the West can win this war, and secure a better future for themselves and for the world.
