Ukraine’s Missile Strike on Sevastopol: A Game-Changer in the Crimea War?
On Wednesday, September 13, 2023, Ukraine launched a massive missile attack on the shipyard in Sevastopol, where two Russian vessels were undergoing repairs. The attack damaged a large landing vessel and a submarine beyond repair, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence official. Russia confirmed the attack and said it downed seven of the incoming missiles and destroyed three uncrewed speedboats that were also used by Ukraine.
This attack was the biggest of the war on Sevastopol and the Russian Black Sea Fleet, according to some observers . It was part of a larger Ukrainian offensive that aims to isolate Crimea and make it untenable for Russia to stay there, according to a retired US Army general. Ukraine also hopes to secure its grain exports and trade routes by demilitarizing the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
But why is the Russian Black Sea Fleet so important for both sides? And what are the implications of this attack for the future of the conflict?
The Strategic Significance of the Russian Black Sea Fleet
The Russian Black Sea Fleet is a naval force that is based in Sevastopol, a port city in Crimea. The fleet is important for Russia’s military and geopolitical interests, as it allows Russia to project power into the Middle East and the Mediterranean, and to impose a de facto blockade on Ukraine’s seaborne food exports via the Turkish straits .
The fleet has a long and turbulent history, dating back to the 18th century when it was founded by Catherine the Great. It played a crucial role in several wars, such as the Crimean War (1853–1856), the Russo-Turkish War (1877–1878), and World War II (1939–1945). It also served as a symbol of Soviet naval might during the Cold War (1947–1991).
After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the fleet became a source of contention between Russia and Ukraine, as both countries claimed ownership of it. A compromise was reached in 1997, when they agreed to divide the fleet and lease some of its facilities to Russia until 2017. However, in 2014, following a controversial referendum that was not recognized by most of the international community, Russia annexed Crimea and took over the entire fleet.
Ukraine considers Crimea to be part of its territory and has vowed to liberate it from Russian occupation. Since then, Ukraine has been developing its missile capabilities to counter Russia’s military advantage in the region. Ukraine has reportedly acquired Western weapons, such as the UK-provided Storm Shadow or the French-provided SCALP-EG long-range cruise missiles, that can target Russian naval and port infrastructure in Crimea .
The Implications of the Attack for the Conflict
The attack on Sevastopol was a bold move by Ukraine, as it demonstrated its willingness and ability to challenge Russia’s dominance in the Black Sea. It also showed that Ukraine has gained support from its Western allies, who have provided it with advanced weapons and intelligence .
The attack could also have wider repercussions for regional and global security, as it could destabilize an already volatile area. The Black Sea is a strategic crossroads for energy, trade, and geopolitics, involving not only Russia and Ukraine, but also Turkey, NATO, and other actors. Any conflict in this area could have serious consequences for peace and stability in Europe and beyond.
