Ukraine’s Counteroffensive: A Game of Strategy and Resilience
The world has been on edge, waiting for Ukraine’s counteroffensive since the onset of spring. The Russian Ministry of Defense, with its claims of defeating every Ukrainian effort, paints a picture of a failed counteroffensive. However, the reality on the ground tells a different story. The Ukrainian counteroffensive is not a failure; it’s a strategic and resilient response to an aggressive adversary.
The shaping operations, which have been ongoing for at least a month, have caught the Russians by surprise. The delivery of Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine by Britain was a strategic move that has significantly disrupted Russian defenses. These missiles, low observable subsonic weapons, fly very close to the ground to evade Russian radar, limiting the warning time for an incoming volley and making them more difficult to intercept.
The Storm Shadow missiles have been instrumental in disrupting Russia’s mobile reserves. High Mars and Storm Shadow strikes have targeted bridges, roads, railways, and Russian Supply Depots and command posts when discovered. By freezing or slowing down Russia’s mobile reserves, Ukraine has been able to exploit a penetration and sweep into the flanks of their defensive line, decimating them in a rear attack.
However, the counteroffensive is not without its challenges. Ukraine has suffered losses, including the unfortunate ambush near the front lines at the start of the ground offensive that resulted in the loss of up to four Leopard 2 tanks. This incident was a tragic day for Ukraine and a propaganda victory for Russia, who immediately shared the footage of the ambush across social media.
Despite these losses, Ukraine has been strategic in its approach to the counteroffensive. It has been launching a large-scale probing of Russian defenses, attacking with smaller units and less heavy equipment. These reconnaissance in force maneuvers are meant to map out Russian defense and press them without being decisively engaged. The goal is to identify the weakest points in the Russian line so that they can be immediately exploited by a massed concentration of firepower kept in reserve.
Ukraine’s strategy is working. It is achieving limited success in its ongoing assaults, regaining ground on the flanks of Bakmut and across the entire Eastern Front. The Ukrainian government has officially confirmed the liberation of dozens of smaller villages. There is yet to be a massive breakthrough across any part of the front, but even now, Russia is steadily losing ground despite Ukraine not fully committing its reserves.
However, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is not without its challenges. Ukraine lacks the ability to challenge Russia in the air and has lacked precision long-range weapons until only recently. This means it’s been able to do little to disrupt Russia’s six months long buildup of defensive fortifications. Ukraine now faces some of the most formidable defenses seen in Europe since the second world war with multiple lines of defense all protected by vast minefields, infantry trenches, bunkers, and tank obstacles.
Despite these challenges, Ukraine has been resilient. It has taken lessons from the U.S Playbook, specifically America’s 2003 Thunder runs into Baghdad that completely disrupted the Iraqi defense. The Ukrainian 35th Marine Brigade has become a significant headache to the Russian military as it continues a week-long Thunder Run operation along the Mokriyali river and penetrating as deep as the now liberated Makarivka Southwest of Donetsk.
The key takeaway from the ongoing counteroffensive is that while losses of men and Western Equipment can be demoralizing to supporters of Ukraine, it’s important to remember that the nation still maintains a sizable force held in reserve. Losses are expected during assault operations, and the effort to support Ukraine was never about a one-time war-winning donation of Leopard 2s and Abram tanks but about a commitment to continue supplying the country with a steady stream of Western main battle tanks and other heavy equipment.
The counteroffensive operations have begun, and Ukraine has yet to commit decisively to any part of the front. This is not the end of the war. Both Russia and Ukraine have the manpower to continue fighting this war for years, even if they suffer catastrophic losses in the current fighting. This is why the best chance for a swift end of the war is one truly combined arms assault integrating ground and air power with Western Equipment shaping it into a plated fist that smashes deep into occupied territory and delivers demoralizing losses to the Russians.
Ukrainian will to fight is high, yet as we’ve seen from the growing number of surrenders in just this first week of ground operations, Russia’s own will to fight is tenuous at best. When you have to force your army to fight by pointing a gun at its back, it’s not the best sign of great successes to come. The Ukrainians have proven to not be dumb and are being advised daily by senior military commanders from the most powerful military alliance in human history.
In conclusion, Ukraine’s counteroffensive is a game of strategy and resilience. It’s a testament to Ukraine’s determination to reclaim its territory and a demonstration of its strategic prowess. Despite the challenges, Ukraine continues to push forward, proving that it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog that matters.
