Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive in Kherson: A New Phase of the War?

The war in Ukraine has entered a new phase as Kyiv’s forces have launched a major counter-offensive in the Kherson region, the only regional capital occupied by Russia since the invasion in 2014. The Ukrainian military claims to have broken through the Russian frontline in several places and to have inflicted heavy losses on the enemy. The goal of the operation is to recapture the entire region and to pave the way for a possible assault on Crimea, the peninsula illegally annexed by Russia.

The Battle for the Dnipro River

The key to the Ukrainian strategy is to secure a foothold on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, which has separated the Ukrainian and Russian forces. The river is a natural obstacle that hinders the movement of troops and equipment, especially for the Ukrainian side, which lacks air superiority. However, in recent weeks, the Ukrainian forces have conducted several raids in small boats across the river and have established several bridgeheads near the village of Krynky, about 30 km (19 miles) from Kherson.

The Ukrainian advance was facilitated by the bad weather conditions, which limited the visibility and the effectiveness of the Russian air force. The Ukrainian forces used this opportunity to rotate their units and to ship supplies of ammunition and equipment across the river. According to some sources, up to 400 Ukrainian personnel are now operating on the eastern bank of the river.

The Russian forces, on the other hand, have been struggling to maintain their supply lines and their morale. The communication between different detachments and branches of the military is reportedly poor, and the Russian command and control centers are often targeted by the Ukrainian artillery and rockets. The Russian soldiers have also complained about the lack of food, water, and medical care.

The HIMARS Strikes

One of the most effective weapons in the Ukrainian arsenal is the HIMARS (High Mobility Artillery Rocket System), a US-supplied rocket launcher that can fire up to six rockets at a time, each with a range of up to 300 km (186 miles). The Ukrainian forces have used the HIMARS to destroy key targets in the Kherson region, such as bridges, command posts, ammunition depots, and air defense systems.

Some of the most notable HIMARS strikes include:

• The destruction of a Russian command and control vehicle near Nova Maiachka, which killed several Russian commanders.
• The destruction of a Russian air defense rocket launcher Buk-M3 near Novoselivske, which is one of the most advanced systems in the Russian inventory.
• The destruction of a building in occupied Yuvileine, which killed four Russian occupation police and injured 18 others during a meeting.

The HIMARS strikes have not only inflicted material and human losses on the Russian side, but also have demoralized and intimidated the enemy. The Ukrainian forces have also released footage of some of the strikes to showcase their capabilities and to boost their own morale.

The Next Steps

The Ukrainian counter-offensive in Kherson is not only a military operation, but also a political and diplomatic one. By showing their determination and their ability to fight back, the Ukrainian authorities hope to pressure Russia to negotiate a peaceful settlement of the conflict and to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has issued a stark warning to the Russian forces: “If they want to survive, it is time for Russian soldiers to flee. Go home.”

However, the situation remains tense and unpredictable, as Russia has not shown any signs of backing down or withdrawing from the occupied territories. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has vowed to defend the “Russian-speaking population” in eastern and southern Ukraine, and has accused the West of supporting a “fascist coup” in Kyiv.

The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend on many factors, such as the weather, the terrain, the morale, the diplomacy, and the will of the people. The Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their courage and their resilience, but they still face a formidable adversary. The Kherson region may be the key to the future of Ukraine, but it is also a dangerous and volatile battleground. The war is far from over, and the stakes are high for both sides.