Ukraine is Cracking the Russian Air Defense in Crimea

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia over the annexed peninsula of Crimea has entered a new phase, as the Ukrainian military has launched a series of daring and devastating air and sea attacks on the Russian-occupied territory. These operations have exposed the vulnerabilities of the Russian air defense systems and naval facilities in Crimea, and have created favorable conditions for a possible ground offensive by the Ukrainian forces.

The Ukrainian Strikes

The Ukrainian military has been conducting these attacks since August 2023, using a combination of cruise missiles, drones, and unmanned boats to strike at strategic targets in Crimea. The Ukrainian forces have been able to penetrate the Russian air defense in Crimea, which consists of several layers of advanced systems, such as the S-400 Triumf, the Pantsir-S1, and the Tor-M2.

One of the most notable attacks occurred on September 13, 2023, when Ukrainian forces launched 10 cruise missiles and three unmanned boats at the Sergo Ordzhonikidze shipyard in Sevastopol, which Russia uses as a repair base for its Black Sea Fleet. The attack damaged two Russian warships and left 24 people injured. The Ukrainian air force also claimed to have destroyed an S-400 missile defense battery in the area, which is one of the most advanced air defense systems in the world.

Another daring operation took place on August 24, 2023, when Ukrainian special forces landed on the western shore of Crimea, near the settlements of Olenivka and Mayak, in a joint operation with the Ukrainian navy. The Ukrainian unit clashed with the Russian troops and inflicted losses on them, as well as raising the Ukrainian flag on the shore.

The Ukrainian Weapons

The Ukrainian military has been using British-made Storm Shadow missiles, which are stealthy and have a long range, as well as drones, which are cheaper and more expendable than manned aircraft. The Storm Shadow missiles are designed to evade radar detection and fly at low altitudes, making them difficult to intercept by the Russian air defense systems. The drones are also equipped with explosives and can be used as kamikaze weapons against the Russian targets.

The Ukrainian weapons have given them an edge over the Russian defenses, as they can avoid or overwhelm them with their speed, maneuverability, and quantity. The Ukrainian weapons have also reduced the risk of losing pilots in case of a counterattack by the Russian forces.

The Implications

The Ukrainian attacks have had significant implications for both sides of the conflict, as well as for the international community. The attacks have:

• Weakened the Russian military presence and capabilities in Crimea, making it more vulnerable to a potential ground invasion by Ukraine.
• Increased the pressure and costs for Russia to maintain its occupation of Crimea, as it has to deal with multiple threats and challenges from Ukraine and other actors.
• Boosted the morale and confidence of the Ukrainian forces and their supporters, who see them as a sign of strength and determination.

The Ukrainian attacks have also raised questions about the effectiveness and reliability of the Russian air defense systems, which are considered to be among the best in the world. The Russian air defense systems have failed to prevent or repel several attacks by different adversaries in recent years, such as Israel in Syria, Turkey in Libya, Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh, and now Ukraine in Crimea. These failures have cast doubt on the Russian military’s ability to defend its own territory and interests, as well as those of its allies.

The Future

The future of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia over Crimea remains uncertain and unpredictable. The Ukrainian attacks have shown that Ukraine is not willing to give up on its claim over Crimea, which it considers to be an integral part of its territory. The attacks have also shown that Ukraine is capable of inflicting serious damage on the Russian forces in Crimea, despite their numerical and technological superiority.