Thinking-in-Time: A Crucial Skillset for Army Officers in the 21st Century

The Strategic Leadership Development Forum, an annual gathering hosted by the US Army War College, serves as a platform for thought leaders, military strategists, and researchers to discuss and explore the nuances of leadership in the military context. The second iteration of this forum, held at the Army Heritage and Education Center in Carlisle, PA, in January 2023, featured a compelling presentation by Dr. Brendon Woody and Dr. Lee Bedford. Both researchers from the Army Research Institute, they delved into a cognitive reasoning skill crucial for decision-making: “Thinking-in-Time.”

“Thinking-in-Time” is a concept that encourages leaders to use the dimension of time — past, present, and future — to inform their decision-making process. In an era where Army officers face increasingly complex challenges, many of which are steeped in historical context, the ability to understand and learn from the past to make informed judgments about the future is invaluable. This piece will explore the concept of “Thinking-in-Time,” its importance in military leadership, and the development of assessments to measure this skill among Army officers.

The Importance of Strategic Thinking in Military Leadership

Strategic thinking is a cornerstone of effective military leadership. It involves the ability to understand the bigger picture, anticipate future scenarios, and make decisions that align with long-term objectives. In the context of the military, where decisions can have far-reaching implications, strategic thinking is not just beneficial — it’s essential.

Army officers often grapple with complex problem sets, many of which are deeply rooted in historical context. These problems may have existed long before their involvement and will likely persist long after their tenure. Therefore, the ability to understand these problems in their historical context is crucial. It allows officers to appreciate the underlying factors that have shaped the current situation and anticipate potential future outcomes.

The concept of “Thinking-in-Time” aligns perfectly with this need. It encourages officers to delve into the past, understand the present, and make informed judgments about the future. This skillset is not just about recalling historical events; it’s about understanding the context of these events and how they influence the present and future. As philosopher George Santayana famously said, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” In the context of military leadership, this sentiment underscores the importance of learning from history to avoid repeating past mistakes.

The Concept of “Thinking-in-Time”

The term “Thinking-in-Time” was first coined in a 1988 book of the same name. However, the concept has evolved significantly since then, thanks to interdisciplinary research in psychology, cognitive psychology, and institutional thinking literature. Today, “Thinking-in-Time” is seen as a cognitive reasoning skill that uses the dimension of time to support the decision-making process.

Through their research, Dr. Woody and Dr. Bedford identified seven key sub-components of the “Thinking-in-Time” skill: historical reasoning, experiential reflection, historical perspective taking, framing causal chains, trend analysis, foreknowledge, and forecasting. Each of these components plays a crucial role in enabling Army officers to understand complex problems in their historical context and make informed decisions.

Historical reasoning involves comparing a present situation to past analogous situations, focusing on both similarities and differences. Experiential reflection, on the other hand, involves drawing on personal experiences to inform decision-making. Historical perspective taking requires understanding the context in which past decisions were made, while framing causal chains involves isolating causality to determine cause-and-effect relationships. Trend analysis involves recognizing patterns and trends in different situations, while foreknowledge and forecasting involve understanding known aspects of the future and envisioning multiple likely futures, respectively.

Assessing “Thinking-in-Time” Skills

The development of assessments to measure “Thinking-in-Time” skills among Army officers is a crucial aspect of Dr. Woody and Dr. Bedford’s research. These assessments, which include a self-report assessment and a situational judgment test, are designed to help officers understand their proficiency in “Thinking-in-Time” behaviors compared to their peers.

The self-report assessment asks officers to evaluate their skills on a six-point Likert scale, ranging from “below average” to “extremely above average.” The situational judgment test, on the other hand, presents officers with strategic scenarios and asks them to identify the most and least effective responses.

It’s important to note that these assessments are intended for developmental purposes, not for selection. They are tools designed to help officers understand their strengths and areas for improvement, and to guide their professional development.

The Role of “Thinking-in-Time” in Army Officer Development

“Thinking-in-Time” has significant potential as a tool for professional military education institutions and for self-development at different stages of an Army officer’s career. By understanding their “Thinking-in-Time” skills, officers can better navigate complex problem sets, make informed decisions, and become more effective leaders.

Moreover, “Thinking-in-Time” can serve as a discussion tool among leadership teams to build strategic competency. By discussing strategic scenarios and exploring different responses, teams can build a shared understanding of strategic challenges and develop more effective strategies.

Conclusion

The concept of “Thinking-in-Time” offers a valuable framework for understanding and addressing the complex challenges faced by Army officers. By learning to appreciate the role of historical context in shaping present situations and future outcomes, officers can make more informed decisions and become more effective leaders. The development of assessments to measure “Thinking-in-Time” skills is a significant step forward, providing officers with valuable tools for self-development and continuous improvement.

As we look to the future, it’s clear that “Thinking-in-Time” will play an increasingly important role in military leadership. By embracing this concept and investing in the development of “Thinking-in-Time” skills, we can prepare our Army officers for the challenges of the 21st century and beyond.