The Wagner Group in Mali: A Detailed Analysis

Since December 2021, the Wagner Group, a Russian private military company, has been a prominent actor in Mali’s turbulent security landscape. Hired ostensibly for training local forces and providing security services, the Wagner Group’s involvement has sparked considerable debate, particularly regarding its impact on civilian safety, counterterrorism efforts, and the broader strategic landscape of the region.

Impact on Civilian Safety

The arrival of Wagner troops in Mali has been associated with a disturbing increase in violence against civilians. In the first quarter of 2022 alone, reports highlighted a significant rise in civilian fatalities, exceeding the total number of the previous year. This surge in violence is particularly alarming given the Wagner Group’s infamous record of human rights abuses.

Recent investigations have shed light on the severity of the situation. For instance, military drone strikes on a wedding celebration on February 16, 2024, and during a burial on February 17, 2024, resulted in the deaths of at least 14 civilians, including 4 children. These incidents exemplify the indiscriminate nature of the operations conducted by the Malian armed forces in collaboration with Wagner Group mercenaries.

Moreover, the withdrawal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) at the request of Mali’s transitional military authorities has raised concerns about the protection of civilians and the monitoring of abuses. The decision by the transitional authorities to leave the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) further deprives victims of gross human rights violations of the ability to seek justice through the ECOWAS Community Court of Justice.

The presence of the Wagner Group has added a complex layer to the already perilous environment that civilians in Mali face, intensifying the threat and complicating the security dynamics. Their operations have not only resulted in a direct increase in civilian casualties but have also contributed to a broader climate of fear and instability.

Operational Challenges and Strategic Shortcomings

Ineffectual Military Operations

The Wagner Group’s deployment in Mali was intended to fill the void left by the withdrawal of French forces and support the Malian armed forces against jihadist groups. However, the security situation has not markedly improved, and several operational inefficiencies have emerged:

• Poor Coordination: The collaboration between Wagner mercenaries and Malian forces has been plagued by coordination issues, undermining the effectiveness of joint military operations. This lack of coordination has been a persistent problem, with reports suggesting that the Wagner Group often operates independently of the Malian forces, leading to disjointed and sometimes conflicting operations.
• Questionable Training Quality: The effectiveness and quality of the training provided to local forces by Wagner have been under scrutiny. Concerns have been raised about its contribution to Mali’s long-term security and stability. The training methods employed by Wagner have been described as outdated and not tailored to the specific needs of the Malian forces or the local context of the insurgency.
• Heavy-Handed Tactics: The group’s military tactics, often criticized for their indiscriminate nature, have led to civilian casualties, fueling resentment and alienation among the local population. The Wagner Group’s approach has been characterized by a reliance on brute force, with little regard for the principles of proportionality or distinction, which are essential in counterinsurgency operations.

Strategic Missteps

The Wagner Group’s strategic approach in Mali has also faced criticism:

• Failure to Adapt: Unlike in other countries where Wagner has operated, such as Sudan and the Central African Republic, the group has struggled to adapt its strategy to the unique challenges presented by Mali. The mining investment exchanges, which are part of Wagner’s payment, are more difficult to obtain and less profitable in Mali, affecting the group’s operational sustainability.
• Undermining Counterterrorism: Wagner’s presence has accelerated the deterioration of counterterrorism pressure in Mali, to the benefit of Salafi-jihadi groups. Their deployment to northern Mali has complicated the backfilling of departing French Operation Barkhane forces by Task Force Takuba, a European special operations task force, thus weakening the overall counterterrorism efforts in the region. Moreover, the atrocities and human rights violations attributed to the Wagner Group have severely damaged the trust in both local and foreign security forces. Trust is a critical component for effective counterterrorism operations, as it fosters cooperation between the military and civilian populations. The erosion of this trust has made it more challenging for security forces to gather intelligence and conduct operations without local support.
• Geopolitical Consequences: The Wagner Group’s activities have significantly contributed to Mali’s growing international isolation. Traditional allies have withdrawn support and imposed sanctions, which poses significant challenges to Mali’s broader military and political strategies. This isolation has been further compounded by the Wagner Group’s pursuit of mineral resources, particularly gold, which has strained relations with France and other countries in the Sahel region. The group’s involvement in Mali has been accused of undermining the country’s sovereignty and stability, leading to a reevaluation of counterterrorism strategies by international partners.
• Economic Exploitation: The Wagner Group has reportedly signed contracts to exploit mineral resources in Mali, especially gold. This economic focus has raised questions about the true intentions behind their military presence. The pursuit of financial gains through mining concessions has often overshadowed the stated objective of stabilizing the region and combating jihadist threats.
• Disinformation Campaigns: The Wagner Group has employed disinformation and pro-government information warfare strategies, including fake polls and counter-demonstration techniques. These actions have not only manipulated public perception but have also created a more hostile environment for legitimate counterterrorism operations.
• Diverted Focus: Wagner’s apparent preoccupation with securing mining concessions and financial interests seems to detract from the primary goal of stabilizing Mali and combating jihadist threats. The group’s involvement in the mining sector, particularly in areas where local armed groups dominate, may create additional conflict and opportunities for JNIM and other Salafi-jihadi groups to gain popular support and access to mining profits. This diversion of focus from security to economic exploitation undermines the counterterrorism mission and may accelerate the deterioration of counterterrorism pressure in Mali.