The Ukrainian Quagmire: How a Failed War Could Spell Doom for Putin’s Regime
The war in Ukraine is one of the most serious and complex conflicts in the world today. It involves not only the fate of a sovereign nation, but also the interests and ambitions of a powerful and assertive neighbor, Russia. The war has been raging since 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and supported separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine, in response to the pro-Western revolution that ousted the former president Viktor Yanukovych. Since then, more than 13,000 people have been killed, over 1.5 million have been displaced, and the peace process has been stalled by repeated violations of the ceasefire agreements.
The war has also put Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, at odds with the international community, especially the United States and its European allies. They have condemned Russia’s aggression and imposed economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military assistance to Ukraine. They have also increased their presence and activity in Eastern Europe, to deter further Russian expansion and reassure their allies in the region.
But what would happen if Putin loses the war in Ukraine? How would it affect his domestic and international standing, his relations with his neighbors, and the stability of the region? In this blog post, we will explore some of the possible consequences for Putin if he fails to achieve his objectives in Ukraine.
Loss of legitimacy and popularity
One of the main reasons why Putin intervened in Ukraine was to boost his legitimacy and popularity at home. He has based his rule on the idea of restoring Russia’s great power status and defending its interests against the West. He has portrayed the war in Ukraine as a defensive response to NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s pro-Western orientation. He has also used state-controlled media to spread propaganda and misinformation about the conflict, portraying Ukraine as a fascist state and Russia as a liberator of the Russian-speaking population.
However, if he loses the war, he might lose the support of his core constituency, who have endured economic hardship and political repression in exchange for national pride and security. According to some polls, Putin’s approval rating has declined from over 80% in 2018 to around 60% in 2023. Some of the factors that have contributed to this decline are the COVID-19 pandemic, the falling oil prices, the rising inflation, the pension reform, the corruption scandals, and the Navalny case. If he fails to deliver on his promises in Ukraine, he might face more criticism and protests from the opposition, civil society and independent media, who have denounced the war as an illegal aggression and a violation of human rights.
Isolation and pressure from the international community
Another consequence for Putin if he loses the war in Ukraine is that he might face more isolation and pressure from the international community. He has already faced strong reactions from the international community for his intervention in Ukraine, including diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions, military assistance to Ukraine and increased NATO presence and activity in Eastern Europe. If he loses the war, he might face more severe consequences, such as further sanctions, legal actions, cyberattacks and covert operations.
He might also lose some of his allies and partners, who might distance themselves from his aggressive and unpredictable behavior. For example, China, which has been cooperating with Russia on various issues such as trade, energy, security and technology, might reconsider its alignment with Moscow if it sees that it is losing influence and credibility in the region. Similarly, Turkey, which has been balancing its relations with Russia and NATO on issues such as Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh, might tilt more towards the West if it sees that Russia is unable to protect its interests or respect its sovereignty.
He might also find himself in a weaker position to negotiate on other issues of global concern, such as Syria, Iran, North Korea and climate change. He might lose his leverage and bargaining power with other actors who might see him as a liability or a spoiler rather than a partner or a mediator.
Instability and violence in the region
A third consequence for Putin if he loses the war in Ukraine is that he might face more instability and violence in the region. He has destabilized the region by supporting separatist forces in eastern Ukraine and annexing Crimea. He has also threatened other neighboring countries, such as Belarus, Moldova, Georgia and the Baltic states, with similar interventions or pressures.
If he loses the war, he might face more resistance and hostility from these countries, who might seek to strengthen their ties with the West and their own security capabilities. He might also face more challenges from within Russia, such as ethnic tensions, separatist movements, terrorist attacks and radicalization. He might resort to more violence and repression to maintain his grip on power.
Conclusion
These are some of the possible consequences for Putin if he loses the war in Ukraine. However, it is hard to predict how he will react to such a scenario, as he might try to escalate the conflict or seek a compromise. It is also important to consider the consequences for Ukraine and its people, who have suffered greatly from the war and deserve peace and stability.
