The Ukrainian Conflict: A Long Road to Victory

The Ukrainian conflict has been a subject of international concern and debate. As the situation unfolds, it’s essential to analyze the current state of affairs and the potential future trajectory of this complex and multifaceted issue.

The Current State of the War

The Ukrainian forces have been making significant strides in modernizing their military capabilities, but the breakthrough they hope for, particularly in the South, remains elusive. The war is likely to last at least another year, possibly longer. The goal is not merely to reclaim territory but to degrade the Russian forces and their will to resist.

The Ukrainians are systematically targeting Russian supply bases and artillery pieces, destroying them at a rate faster than Russia can resupply. This strategy is forcing the Russians to rely on less effective, older artillery, while the Ukrainians continue to modernize their forces.

The Long-Term Perspective

Looking at the long-term perspective, Ukraine is positioning itself for a better position in 2024. With a 21st-century military, they will be better prepared for next year’s campaign season. The Russians, on the other hand, will likely face a 20th-century army against a more advanced Ukrainian force.

The West’s support, particularly in terms of Western tanks like the Leopard 2, has proven more survivable and effective than Russian tanks. This support is not a war-winner on its own but demonstrates the superiority of Western design and build quality.

The Political Landscape

The political landscape is complex, with varying reactions from the West, Europe, and America. While some in the West were hopeful for a quick victory, most policy circles were more skeptical and planned for a long-running war.

The potential return of a Trump presidency in the United States adds another layer of complexity. There is a sense that Ukraine must be positioned as a winner to secure continued support under a potential Trump administration.

Peace Talks and International Stage

Recent peace talks, though not including Russia, have been seen by some as a performative exercise. Countries like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and China are maintaining some traction on the process but are waiting for their moment to act as peace brokers.

Ukraine’s aim to return to the 1991 borders remains firm, but the cost of the war and the beginnings of war weariness may lead to potential concessions in the future. Crimea could be the focus of peace talks, possibly leading to a new, genuine referendum on its future.

Putin’s Home Front

Putin’s confidence seems to be waning, both militarily and politically. The war is affecting his political position, and the political scene is constraining the military effort. The economic and political costs of the war should not be underestimated, and the West will be watching closely.

Western Support and Future Implications

The cost of supporting Ukraine is becoming a concern for the West, especially given the current economic climate. While America’s commitment ensures continued support from the alliance, Ukraine fatigue is a real thing.

The willingness to find new ways to support Ukraine may become overstretched, and behind-the-scenes pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia may increase. The addition of American tanks and fighter jets may incrementally increase Ukraine’s capacities but is unlikely to change the arithmetic of the battlefield dramatically.