The Russian Way of Warfare — What Ukraine Teaches Us About the New Age of Conflict

The “Russian Way of Warfare: A Primer” published by the RAND Corporation, offers an illuminating lens through which we can understand not just Russia’s military doctrine, but also the evolving dynamics of modern conflicts. Far from being a dusty manual, this document decodes the ambitions and limitations of a nation that desires to be seen as a global superpower. And perhaps there’s no better laboratory to examine the effectiveness of Russia’s military strategies than the ongoing conflict in Ukraine — a confrontation that’s shaping up to be a defining conflict for this new age of asymmetrical, hybrid warfare.

The Russian Chessboard

Firstly, we need to consider the interests driving Russia’s military strategy. The quest for regional influence, defending its own territorial integrity, and the aspiration for global recognition as a ‘great power’ are all pieces on the Russian chessboard. Historically, Russia has lived through the painful experiences of invasions, from Napoleon to Hitler. These scars have instilled a preference for tactics like deception and surprise, always aiming to keep adversaries on the back foot.

Strengths and Weaknesses

The primer makes it clear that Russia’s armed forces have been rapidly modernizing. Improved readiness, mobility, and inter-service coordination mark a departure from the disorganized state of the Russian military in the post-Soviet 1990s. But every coin has two sides. While Russia has heavily invested in conventional and nuclear deterrence, long-range fires, and electronic warfare, it has also revealed substantial vulnerabilities — primarily in logistics, intelligence, and air defense.

The Ukrainian Resistance

In the Ukrainian context, these vulnerabilities have been laid bare, serving as cautionary tales. Russia’s strategy of using long-range fires and electronic warfare was met with a surprising level of resistance. Ukraine’s air defense systems, for instance, have countered Russia’s ballistic and cruise missiles with an efficacy that has upset Russian calculations. The Ukrainian forces have also retaliated with their long-range artillery, demonstrating an indomitable spirit and tactical resourcefulness.

Moreover, Ukraine’s burgeoning cyber capabilities have managed to destabilize Russia’s otherwise well-oiled machinery of electronic warfare, disrupting communications and exposing the frailties in Russia’s digital armor. In an era where battles are as much fought on computer screens as on the ground, this is no minor feat.

A New Age of Warfare

One of the most fascinating aspects of the Ukraine conflict is its hybrid nature. Russia’s use of irregular militias and proxy forces was meant to blur the lines and make conventional response more complicated. Yet, here too, Ukraine adapted, mobilizing its regular and special forces effectively. Ukraine’s civil society and volunteer groups have added another layer of resilience to its defense. It’s a collective action that suggests warfare is no longer just the domain of the state and its standing armies.

The Need for Western Vigilance

Given Russia’s expressed interests and the evolving battle landscape in Ukraine, Western policymakers have a lot to ponder. The case of Ukraine is a living testament to the need for adaptive military strategies, robust alliances, and above all, an understanding of the changed character of modern warfare. The opportunity exists for the West to engage Russia on multiple fronts — be it exploiting vulnerabilities in its military systems or through confidence-building measures and dialogues. But one thing is clear: underestimate Ukraine — or any other nation with the spirit to innovate and adapt — at your own peril.