The Russian Military Thought: Hybrid, New-Generation, and New-Type Warfare

Timothy L. Thomas has once again graced us with an analysis of Russian military strategies in his recent paper. A retired U.S. Army officer and an erstwhile analyst at the Foreign Military Studies Office, Thomas is no stranger to delving deep into the intricacies of Russian military thought. His paper serves as a tour de force, elucidating how Russian military doctrine has evolved since the end of the Cold War by coalescing various concepts — hybrid warfare, new-generation warfare, and new-type warfare — into a strategic vision that reflects the zeitgeist of modern conflicts.

A Historical Continuation: Hybrid Warfare

The term ‘hybrid warfare’ has become almost synonymous with Russian intervention in Ukraine since 2014. The strategic blend of covert operations, cyber-attacks, and propaganda offers a heady cocktail that complicates the traditional warfighting paradigms. However, Thomas contends that this is not new for Russia. Instead, it’s an extension of a long-standing tradition of leveraging asymmetric and indirect tactics. If we view Russia’s behavior through this lens, it’s easier to understand why hybrid warfare seems less like an innovation and more like a maturation of historical approaches fine-tuned for the modern era.

Embracing the Blur: New-Generation Warfare

The conceptual sibling to hybrid warfare is “new-generation warfare,” a term brought to life by Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov in 2013. This approach revels in the ambiguous transitions between peace and war, leveraging unpredictability and psychological elements to throw adversaries off balance. It’s essentially a candid admission, acknowledging that the 21st-century battlefield isn’t necessarily a geographic location but a state of political and social tension. Thomas astutely points out that this kind of warfare isn’t just about projecting military strength; it’s about exploiting the weaknesses and divisions within the potential adversaries themselves.

The Technological Frontier: New-Type Warfare

If Gerasimov laid the intellectual foundation for new-generation warfare, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has done the same for what’s been termed “new-type warfare.” This strategy hinges on the technological: disrupting enemy systems through information and electronic warfare, from jamming communication networks to disabling satellites.

The Semantics of War: From Partisan Action to Partisan Movement

Thomas also dives into the nuances of language in Russian military lexicon. Terms like “partisan action” and “partisan movement,” once reflective of specific historical contexts like World War II or the Syrian conflict, have been repurposed. The fluidity of these terms serves a dual purpose: they both legitimize irregular warfare as a tool against enemies and acknowledge it as a looming domestic threat. It’s a subtle yet telling indicator of Russia’s multifaceted approach to military strategy.

The Road Ahead

In his concluding remarks, Thomas calls on Western policymakers to sharpen their focus on Russia’s evolving military doctrine. This isn’t just a matter of countering specific tactics; it’s about understanding a comprehensive strategy that’s being refined continually through both historical insights and forward-looking innovations. Moreover, Thomas pushes for an enhancement in the West’s own readiness to deal with Russia’s multi-pronged challenges.