The Rise of the AfD: A Threat to Germany’s Democracy and Stability

Germany is facing a political and social crisis that threatens its democracy and stability, as well as its role in the European Union. The crisis is caused by the rise of the right-wing populist party Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has gained significant support and influence in the country, especially in the eastern states. The AfD’s success is driven by a combination of historical, social, economic, and cultural factors that have created a sense of alienation, resentment, and fear among many voters, especially in the former East Germany. The AfD’s ideology and strategy are based on nationalism, populism, anti-immigration, anti-Islam, anti-EU, and anti-establishment rhetoric, as well as the use of social media, fake news, and conspiracy theories to mobilize its supporters and attract new voters. The AfD’s rise poses a serious challenge to Germany’s democracy and stability, as it represents a radical departure from the country’s post-war consensus and values, and as it contributes to the polarization, fragmentation, radicalization, violence, and erosion of trust and tolerance in the German society and politics. The AfD also faces several challenges and controversies, such as internal divisions, scandals, investigations, protests, and potential ban by the constitutional court for violating democratic principles and human rights. The AfD’s impact on the German political system and society is profound and far-reaching, and it raises some questions about the future of Germany and Europe in the face of the rising right-wing populism.

Historical and social context

The AfD’s rise cannot be understood without considering the historical and social context that has shaped the German society and politics, especially in the eastern states. The legacy of the Cold War and the reunification of Germany have created significant economic and social disparities between the east and the west, as well as a sense of marginalization, neglect, and betrayal among the eastern voters. According to the latest official statistics, the unemployment rate in the east is 6.4%, compared to 4.6% in the west; the average income in the east is 20% lower than in the west; the education level in the east is lower than in the west; and the infrastructure in the east is less developed than in the west. These inequalities have fueled a feeling of frustration and dissatisfaction with the mainstream parties and the federal government, which are perceived as favoring the west and ignoring the east. The eastern voters also feel that their identity and culture are threatened by the westernization and globalization of the country, and that they are not fully integrated into the unified Germany. The AfD has capitalized on these sentiments, and has presented itself as a voice for the eastern interests and grievances, as well as a defender of the eastern identity and sovereignty.

Refugee crisis and COVID-19 pandemic

The AfD’s popularity and radicalization have also been boosted by the refugee crisis of 2015–2016 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020–2021, which have posed major challenges and threats to Germany and Europe. The refugee crisis, which was triggered by the civil war in Syria and other conflicts in the Middle East and Africa, resulted in the arrival of more than one million asylum seekers in Germany in 2015 and 2016, the highest number in the EU. The refugee influx put a strain on the public services, the social welfare, and the security of the country, and sparked a heated debate and a backlash among the public and the politicians. The AfD exploited this issue to spread its anti-immigration, anti-Islam, anti-EU, and anti-Merkel messages, and to portray itself as the protector of the German identity, sovereignty, and security. The AfD also accused the mainstream parties and the media of being too lenient and too tolerant towards the refugees, and of hiding the negative consequences of the refugee policy, such as the increase in crime, terrorism, and cultural clashes. The AfD’s stance resonated with many voters who felt threatened, overwhelmed, and betrayed by the refugee influx, and who demanded a stricter and more controlled immigration policy.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China in late 2019 and spread to the rest of the world in 2020 and 2021, has also contributed to the AfD’s popularity and radicalization. The pandemic has caused a health crisis, an economic crisis, and a social crisis in Germany and Europe, as well as in the rest of the world. The pandemic has infected more than 3 million people and killed more than 80,000 people in Germany, and has resulted in the lockdown of the country, the closure of the borders, the restriction of the movement, the shutdown of the businesses, the loss of the jobs, and the disruption of the education and the social life. The pandemic has also exposed the weaknesses and the failures of the EU and the national governments in dealing with the crisis, and has increased the public distrust and dissatisfaction with the authorities and the experts. The AfD has exploited this issue to spread its anti-lockdown, anti-vaccine, anti-EU, and anti-government messages, and to portray itself as the champion of the freedom, the democracy, and the sovereignty of the people. The AfD has also spread fake news and conspiracy theories about the origin, the nature, and the purpose of the pandemic, such as claiming that it was a hoax, a plot, or a weapon by China, the US, the WHO, the UN, or the global elites. The AfD’s stance resonated with many voters who felt oppressed, scared, and deceived by the pandemic and the measures taken to contain it, and who demanded a more transparent and more democratic response to the crisis.

Ideology and strategy

The AfD’s ideology and strategy are based on nationalism, populism, right-wing extremism, and Euroscepticism, which are the main features and goals of the party. The AfD’s nationalism is based on the idea that Germany is a superior and unique nation, with a distinct identity, culture, and history, that should be preserved and defended from the external and internal threats, such as immigration, Islam, EU, and globalization. The AfD’s populism is based on the idea that there is a fundamental conflict between the people and the elite, and that the AfD represents the true and authentic will and interests of the people, while the mainstream parties, the media, the academia, and the civil society are corrupted, detached, and hostile to the people. The AfD’s right-wing extremism is based on the idea that Germany is facing an existential crisis and a decline, and that the AfD offers a radical and revolutionary solution to restore the glory and the power of the nation, by rejecting the liberal, democratic, and pluralistic values and norms of the post-war Germany, and by embracing the authoritarian, nationalist, and xenophobic values and norms of the pre-war Germany. The AfD’s Euroscepticism is based on the idea that the EU is a failed and undemocratic project, that undermines the sovereignty, the democracy, and the prosperity of Germany, and that the AfD advocates for a German exit from the EU, or at least a reform of the EU to reduce its power and influence over Germany.

The AfD’s ideology and strategy are also reflected in its policies and slogans, which are designed to appeal to its supporters and to attract new voters, especially among the young, the male, and the less educated segments of the population. Some of the AfD’s policies and slogans are:

• “Germany First”: The AfD’s motto, which expresses its priority and preference for the German interests and values over the international and the European ones.
• “Islam does not belong to Germany”: The AfD’s slogan, which expresses its rejection and hostility towards Islam and Muslims, and its demand for a ban on the mosques, the minarets, the burqas, the halal food, and the Sharia law in Germany.
• “Dexit”: The AfD’s term for a German exit from the EU, which expresses its opposition and criticism towards the EU and its institutions, and its desire for a referendum on Germany’s membership in the EU.

The AfD’s ideology and strategy are also based on the use of social media, fake news, and conspiracy theories to mobilize its supporters and to attract new voters, especially among the young, the male, and the less educated segments of the population. The AfD has a strong and active presence on social media platforms, such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and Telegram, where it posts and shares its messages, videos, images, and memes, and where it interacts and engages with its followers and fans. The AfD also uses social media to bypass and challenge the mainstream media, which it accuses of being biased, censored, and controlled by the elite and the establishment. The AfD also uses social media to spread fake news and conspiracy theories In order to advance their own agenda.

Challenges and controversies

The AfD’s rise is not without challenges and controversies, both internally and externally. The AfD faces several issues that damage its image and credibility, and that affect its relations with other parties and institutions, both at the national and the European level.

• Internal divisions: The AfD is not a homogeneous or a coherent party, but rather a coalition of different factions and personalities, with different agendas and visions. The AfD is divided between the moderate and the radical wings, which often clash over the party’s direction and strategy. The moderate wing, led by Jörg Meuthen, the co-leader of the party, advocates for a more pragmatic and realistic approach, and seeks to cooperate with other parties and to distance itself from the extremist and the violent elements. The radical wing, led by Björn Höcke, the leader of the so-called “wing” faction, advocates for a more ideological and confrontational approach, and seeks to dominate the party and to align itself with the neo-Nazi and the anti-democratic movements. The internal divisions have resulted in power struggles, leadership crises, and defections within the party, and have weakened its unity and effectiveness.
• Scandals: The AfD is also plagued by scandals and controversies, which tarnish its reputation and expose its hypocrisy and corruption. The AfD has been involved in several cases of financial irregularities, such as illegal donations, tax evasion, and embezzlement, which contradict its claim of being a clean and transparent party. The AfD has also been involved in several cases of hate speech, racism, anti-Semitism, sexism, and homophobia, which contradict its claim of being a democratic and respectful party. Some of the AfD’s members and leaders have made offensive and outrageous statements, such as denying the Holocaust, praising the Nazis, insulting the victims of the Berlin terror attack, mocking the disabled, and calling for the shooting of the refugees. These statements have provoked public outrage and condemnation, and have resulted in legal actions and sanctions against the AfD.
• Investigations: The AfD is also under investigation and scrutiny by the authorities and the institutions, which question its legality and legitimacy. The AfD is monitored by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), the domestic intelligence agency, which considers the AfD as a potential threat to the constitutional order and the democratic system. The BfV has classified the AfD’s “wing” faction and its youth organization as “suspected cases” of right-wing extremism, which allows the BfV to use surveillance and infiltration methods to collect information and evidence about the AfD’s activities and intentions. The BfV has also warned that the AfD’s entire party could be classified as a “suspected case” or even as a “proven case” of right-wing extremism, which would have serious legal and political consequences for the AfD.
• Protests: The AfD is also facing protests and resistance from the public and the civil society, which oppose and challenge its agenda and actions. The AfD is confronted by various movements and groups, such as the “No AfD” campaign, the “Pulse of Europe” movement, the “Unteilbar” (Indivisible) coalition, and the “Aufstehen gegen Rassismus” (Stand up against racism) initiative, which organize rallies, demonstrations, petitions, and campaigns to denounce and counter the AfD’s messages and policies. The AfD is also isolated and boycotted by other parties and institutions, such as the parliament, the media, the academia, the churches, the trade unions, and the cultural organizations, which refuse to cooperate or to dialogue with the AfD, and which exclude or marginalize the AfD from the political and social sphere.
• Potential ban: The AfD is also facing the possibility of being banned by the constitutional court, which is the highest and the most powerful court in Germany, and which has the authority and the responsibility to protect and to enforce the constitution and the basic rights. The constitutional court can ban a party if it finds that the party is unconstitutional, that is, if it aims to abolish or to undermine the democratic and the liberal order, or if it violates the human dignity and the human rights. The constitutional court has banned two parties in the past, the Socialist Reich Party (SRP) in 1952, and the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) in 1956, both of which were considered as successors of the Nazi and the Stalinist regimes. The constitutional court has not banned any party since then, but it has received several requests and petitions to ban the AfD, especially from the mainstream parties, the civil society groups, and the victims of the AfD’s violence and hate speech. The constitutional court has not yet decided whether to accept or to reject these requests and petitions, but it has indicated that it is closely watching and examining the AfD’s behavior and development.