The Real Culprits of Burkina Faso’s Insecurity: It’s Not Just About Regime Change

By examining the complex landscape of Burkina Faso’s ongoing political turmoil and unrest, Nicolas Hubert — a political scientist with boots-on-the-ground experience in the West African nation — sheds light on the deeper issues that often go overlooked. The public narrative, largely shaped by political leaders and media reports, tends to reduce the crisis to easily digestible soundbites, frequently pointing fingers at regime changes and external influences. However, as Hubert’s in-depth research demonstrates, the issue is far more nuanced and primarily stems from internal factors that have eroded the state’s legitimacy and capability.

The Patronage Networks and the Power Vacuum

Contrary to popular belief, Hubert argues that Burkina Faso’s fragility is not just a byproduct of regime change; it’s more deeply rooted in the nation’s political DNA. The overthrow of Blaise Compaoré in 2014 and the 2016 municipal elections didn’t merely instigate the current chaos but exacerbated existing vulnerabilities within the country’s political infrastructure. The disruption of patronage networks, those invisible webs of loyalties and obligations, has left a vacuum, creating a fertile battleground where armed groups and criminal networks can flourish.

Grievances of the Agro-Pastoral Populations

The Sahel and East regions of Burkina Faso, predominantly agro-pastoral communities, are marinating in a cocktail of grievances and frustrations that have long been ignored by the state. Hubert draws attention to the ‘rupture’ this has caused with central authority. It’s not merely a ‘rupture’ in the abstract sense; it’s an active disengagement, a conscious unyoking from a state that these communities feel has consistently failed them. This disengagement serves as an anchoring point for transnational armed groups and actors from the Mali conflict to capitalize on the strife.

The Web of Transnational Networks

The insecurity is not limited to insurrections and localized conflicts. A greater concern is the power vacuum filled by transnational criminal networks involved in banditry and other illicit activities. It’s a vicious cycle: armed groups rely on these criminal networks to further expand their territorial control, thereby deepening the crisis.

The Risk of Ethnic Stigmatization

What’s even more alarming, as Hubert warns, is the risk of ethnic stigmatization and generalized communal violence. In the cacophony of blame and chaos, certain groups are being scapegoated as collaborators, intensifying the divide and adding yet another layer of complexity to the problem. This isn’t just a security issue; it’s a social cancer that could metastasize into long-term ethnic conflicts if not addressed promptly and carefully.

The Way Forward

Nicolas Hubert’s conclusion is both sobering and instructive. The crisis is not an external imposition but an internal corrosion. This demands a multi-faceted approach for resolution. A security-only strategy won’t cut it; the underlying political, social, and economic conditions must be considered.

Addressing Burkina Faso’s multifaceted crisis requires more than military intervention or peace talks; it needs a comprehensive, ground-up approach that respects the local realities and addresses the structural issues at the core of the crisis. We cannot afford to reduce the complexities of this conflict to mere talking points. It’s time to listen to voices like Hubert’s — voices of nuanced understanding — and take concrete steps to rebuild Burkina Faso’s political and social fabric, one thread at a time.