The Power of Prediction: A Look at Ukraine-US Wargames amid the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict
In the face of an escalating geopolitical conflict, there’s a tool that strategists and military officials employ to glean insights into the potential trajectories of the turmoil — wargaming. This process of strategic and tactical simulation has been essential in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, particularly in the sequence of wargames carried out between the Ukraine Army and the United States starting from January 2022.
The first of these wargames, conducted by the Marine Corps University and the Brute Krulak Center for Innovation and Future Warfare in January 2022, offered uncanny prescience. It predicted Russia’s major combat movements in the initial week of operations with a precision that underscores the validity of wargaming as a method of threat forecasting.
Simulating daily turns, the wargame forecast Russia launching a surprise assault on Ukraine on February 1, 2022, employing a blend of airborne, special operations, and proxy forces to capture pivotal objectives like airports, bridges, and communication nodes. But beyond the physical onslaught, the wargame foresaw a psychological and digital warfare landscape, with Russia disrupting Ukraine’s command and control, communications, and situational awareness through electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and disinformation.
In contrast, the wargame also projected a valiant Ukrainian resistance. It foresaw Ukraine leveraging its anti-tank guided missiles, artillery, and air defenses to inflict significant casualties on the invading Russian forces. As the wargame predicted, Ukraine received substantial military assistance from the US and other NATO allies, underscoring the crucial role of international cooperation in the face of belligerent aggression.
However, as the conflict’s dynamics shifted, so did the focus of the wargames. The simulation reopened in February 2022, centering on a national resistance scenario in a Russian-occupied Ukraine. Interestingly, this wargame suggested that the war, in the absence of a negotiated settlement, would veer towards an indefinite stalemate with neither side able to achieve decisive military effects in the offense.
The wargame further underlined the potency of Ukraine’s military capabilities, including its ability to employ killer-drones to neutralize Russian vehicles. It also demonstrated the strategic importance of training centers in reinvigorating Ukraine’s frontline combat power and helping these forces reengage in the fight. What was unexpected, however, was Russia’s summer 2022 move, prioritizing political objectives over improving the overall military situation, in spite of escalating Ukrainian partisan activity in occupied regions.
As the conflict persisted, so did the wargames, with another exercise held in August 2022 to aid Ukrainian forces in comprehending the force levels needed for success in various scenarios. Here, the US urged Kyiv to maintain limited objectives and geography in their operations, aiming to avoid overextension and the risk of getting bogged down on multiple fronts. This wargame also underlined the challenges that Ukraine faced, such as Russia’s disruptive electronic warfare and cyberattacks.
Another noteworthy insight from the August wargame was the importance of NATO’s backing for Ukraine, encompassing weapons, training, intelligence, and logistics support. This resonated with Ukraine’s burgeoning needs as they confronted the sophisticated onslaught from a powerful adversary.
The sequence of wargames continued after August 2022, facilitating an understanding of the progress and challenges of Ukraine’s counteroffensive in the Kherson region. It helped Ukrainians gauge their shaping operations in southern Ukraine, preparing the battlefield for a significant counteroffensive. Additionally, it allowed Ukrainians to assess their foreign military aid, as well as anticipate Russia’s possible escalatory measures, including the employment of nuclear and chemical weapons, or hybrid warfare.
Successes were also revealed, such as Ukraine’s effective application of resistance warfare, developed by US special operations forces, in retaliating against Russia’s occupation. Ukraine’s deployment of anti-tank guided missiles, artillery, and air defenses causing significant Russian casualties was another high point of the wargame’s findings.
The most recent wargame in July 2023 continued this trajectory, aiding Ukrainian forces in understanding the status and prospects of their counteroffensive in the Kherson region. It helped Ukrainians assess their artillery capabilities, especially as the US provided them with much-needed howitzer artillery rounds as part of a $400 million aid package. Simultaneously, the wargame allowed the Ukrainians to anticipate potential Russian responses and countermeasures, such as resorting to nuclear weapons, chemical warfare, or hybrid tactics.
It’s evident from these wargames that the challenges are multifaceted — from Russia’s disruptive use of electronic warfare, cyberattacks, and disinformation, to the specter of nuclear threats against NATO members. Yet, the significance of NATO’s support for Ukraine remains a key highlight, reflecting the interconnectedness of global politics and the necessity of collective defense in the face of aggressive expansionism.
In summary, the series of wargames between the Ukraine Army and the United States offer valuable insights into the evolving dynamics of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. They underscore the complexity of modern warfare, where physical, psychological, and digital battlespaces intertwine. And ultimately, they exemplify how international cooperation, astute anticipation, and persistent resilience can bolster a nation’s defense against an overwhelming adversary.
