The High Stakes of Ukraine’s Struggle: Global Implications of a Russian Victory
The opinion piece from POLITICO, authored by Ukrainian businessman and philanthropist Victor Pinchuk, presents a stark view of the potential global consequences if Ukraine were to lose the war against Russia. Pinchuk argues that a Russian victory would not result in a stable stalemate, but rather in a brutal conquest marked by widespread destruction and human rights violations, as exemplified by the siege of Mariupol. He foresees an increase in Ukrainian refugees, which would have significant financial implications for Europe. According to the UN, more than 5.2 million refugees from Ukraine have been recorded across Europe as of July 2023, and the UN has appealed for $4.2 billion from donors to support them and the people in need inside Ukraine.
Pinchuk also warns of the geopolitical ripple effects of a Russian victory. He anticipates heightened Russian aggression and threats towards neighboring countries, such as Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, which are NATO members and have sizable Russian-speaking minorities. He also expects increased influence of pro-Russian political parties within Europe, especially on the far right, which have received financial and ideological support from Moscow. Moreover, he predicts a need for significantly higher defense spending by European nations and NATO, which have already reached a crucial spending target of 2% of GDP in 2021, but still lag behind the US in terms of military capabilities. The piece emphasizes that Russian victory would embolden not only Russia but also other authoritarian regimes globally, such as China, Iran, and North Korea, potentially leading to more conflicts and instability.
The opinion piece concludes with a call for the West to increase its support for Ukraine, stressing that Ukraine’s victory is achievable and comparatively less expensive than the alternative scenarios. Pinchuk appeals to Western self-interest, highlighting the strategic and economic benefits of a robust defense of Ukraine in preserving international order and security.
