The Gulf Crisis: A New Challenge for the US and its Allies
The Middle East is once again a hotspot of geopolitical tensions, as the US and its allies face a new challenge from the Houthi rebels of Yemen, backed by Iran. The Houthis have launched several attacks against US bases and oil facilities in the Persian Gulf, as well as against commercial ships in the Red Sea, threatening the security and stability of the region, as well as the global trade. What are the causes and consequences of this escalation, and how can the US and its allies respond effectively?
The Yemeni Conflict: A Proxy War between Saudi Arabia and Iran
The Yemeni conflict is a complex and multifaceted civil war that has been raging since 2014, when the Houthi movement, a Shiite group close to Iran, seized the capital Sanaa and ousted the internationally recognized government of President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. The conflict has since become a proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the two regional rivals that compete for influence and hegemony in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia, along with a coalition of Arab and Western countries, including the US, intervened militarily in 2015 to support the Hadi government and to counter the Iranian-backed Houthis. The coalition has conducted a relentless air campaign against the Houthi-controlled areas, causing widespread destruction and civilian casualties. The UN estimates that more than 230,000 people have been killed and 24 million people need humanitarian assistance in Yemen, making it the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
Despite the coalition’s efforts, the Houthis have not only maintained their grip on the north-west of the country, but have also expanded their military capabilities and operations. They have acquired sophisticated weapons, such as ballistic missiles and drones, from Iran, and have used them to target Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the main coalition partners. They have also increased their attacks on maritime traffic in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, posing a serious threat to the global oil supply and trade.
The Houthi Attacks: A Challenge for the US and its Allies
The Houthi attacks on US bases and oil facilities in the Persian Gulf have raised the alarm in Washington and its allies, who have condemned them as unacceptable and provocative. The US has accused Iran of providing the Houthis with the weapons and the intelligence to carry out the attacks, and has vowed to defend its interests and partners in the region. The US has also formed a multinational coalition to protect the freedom of navigation and to prevent further attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. The United States and the countries that are part of the coalition have carried out several strikes on Houthi missile launchers and sites in Yemen, in what it calls a necessary and proportionate response.
The Houthi attacks have also exposed the vulnerabilities and limitations of the US and its allies’ defense systems in the region. The US have deployed the Patriot air defense system, a medium-range missile interceptor, to protect their bases and ships from the Houthi attacks. The Patriot system consists of radars, launchers and missiles that can detect and destroy aerial targets at different altitudes and distances. It has been successful in intercepting some of the Houthi attacks, but it has also experienced failures and malfunctions, especially against small, fast and stealthy targets.
The Patriot system was originally designed to counter high-altitude aircraft, and was later upgraded to deal with ballistic missiles. However, it is not well suited to cope with low-flying cruise missiles and drones, which can evade the radar detection and fly below the interception range. The Houthi attacks have demonstrated the ability of these weapons to penetrate the Patriot system and to hit their targets with precision and accuracy. The US and its allies have acknowledged the need to improve their air defense capabilities and to develop new technologies and strategies to counter the evolving threats.
The Houthi Motivations: A Mix of Solidarity and Provocation
The Houthi attacks in the Gulf have raised questions about their motivations and objectives. The Houthis claim that they are acting in solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza, who are victims of the Israeli aggression, and that they are targeting ships that are linked to Israel. However, critics argue that many of the recent attacks have been carried out against ships that have no connection to Israel, and that the Houthis are exploiting the situation in Gaza to boost their popularity, to show their capabilities and to prove to Iran that they can be an effective ally.
The Houthis may also have another motive: to provoke a military reaction from the US, in order to strengthen their legitimacy and popularity in Yemen. The Houthis have portrayed themselves as the defenders of the Yemeni sovereignty and dignity, and as the resistors of the foreign aggression and intervention. They have used the coalition’s airstrikes and blockade as a rallying cry to mobilize their supporters and to recruit new fighters. They have also sought to undermine the credibility and authority of the Hadi government, which they accuse of being a puppet of the US and Saudi Arabia.
By attacking the US and its allies in the Gulf, the Houthis may hope to trigger a direct confrontation that would escalate the conflict and increase the suffering of the Yemeni people. This could in turn generate more sympathy and support for the Houthis, both inside and outside Yemen, and isolate and weaken the Hadi government and the coalition. The Houthis may also hope to draw the US and its allies into a costly and protracted war, similar to the ones in Iraq and Afghanistan, that would drain their resources and will, and eventually force them to withdraw from the region.
Conclusion: A New Opportunity for Peace or a New Source of Conflict?
The Houthi attacks in the Gulf have added a new dimension to the already complex and chaotic situation in the Middle East. They have increased the risks of a wider regional conflict, involving the US, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, that could have devastating consequences for the stability and security of the world. They have also highlighted the urgency and the necessity of finding a political solution to the Yemeni conflict, which is the root cause of the current crisis.
The US and its allies have stated that they are not seeking a war, but that they are ready to defend themselves and their partners from the Houthi attacks. They have also expressed their support for the UN-led peace efforts, and have called on the Houthis to cease their attacks and to engage in dialogue with the Hadi government and the coalition. The Houthis, on the other hand, have said that they will continue their attacks until the coalition ends its aggression and blockade on Yemen, and until the Israeli occupation of Palestine ends.
The question is whether the Houthi attacks in the Gulf are a “good” reason for the US and its allies to reinvigorate their military presence and influence in the region, or whether they are an opportunity to rethink their strategy and policy towards Yemen and the Middle East. The answer may depend on the willingness and the ability of the parties involved to overcome their differences and mistrust, and to work together for a peaceful and lasting resolution of the conflict.
