The Future of Naval Special Warfare: Adapting to the Eurasian Rimland War

In the ever-evolving landscape of global conflict, the role of Naval Special Warfare (NSW) is undergoing a significant transformation. The traditional paradigms of special operations, honed in the deserts and mountains of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations, must now pivot to address the complexities of large-scale strategic confrontations, particularly in the Eurasian rimland.

The Strategic Imperative

The Strategic Imperative has become increasingly complex in the modern geopolitical landscape, particularly in the Eurasian rimland. This region, which encompasses the coastal areas from Western Europe through the Middle East and South Asia to East Asia, is not only a geopolitical hotspot but also a zone of economic and strategic significance due to its dense population and rich resources. The rimland theory, developed by Nicholas Spykman, posits that control over this maritime fringe is key to global power.

In this context, the United States and its allies are confronted with a revisionist coalition that challenges the existing international order. This coalition, primarily centered in Eurasia, exhibits weak points that can be strategically targeted. Special operations forces (SOF) are critical in this scenario due to their versatility, ability to conduct unconventional warfare, and capacity for rapid deployment.

SOF are trained to perform a variety of tasks that are essential in modern warfare, including special reconnaissance, foreign internal defense, counter-terrorism operations, and support to irregular warfare. Their role extends beyond traditional combat operations to include shaping the environment before conflicts arise and ensuring success should conflict occur.

Moreover, SOF are instrumental in reinforcing maritime supremacy, supporting the political independence of key regional states, and maintaining strong partnerships with countries surrounding potential adversaries. Their operations are designed to weaken adversaries through activities below the threshold of conventional warfare, such as information operations, cyber operations, and economic coercion.

The agility and specialized skills of SOF enable them to exploit the vulnerabilities of revisionist powers while allowing high-end conventional assets to remain poised for direct engagements. This dual capability ensures that SOF can apply pressure on multiple fronts, stressing adversary weaknesses and contributing to a comprehensive strategy that supports the geopolitical objectives of the United States and its allies.

Retooling NSW for Rimland Warfare

The transition from a primary focus on counterterrorism to addressing the challenges of great power competition has significant implications for Naval Special Warfare (NSW). This shift requires a comprehensive retooling of NSW capabilities to ensure they remain effective in the new strategic context, particularly in the maritime and littoral realms of the rimland, which are areas of strategic competition due to their proximity to land and sea.

The retooling process encompasses several key areas:

1. Risk Tolerance: There’s a need for a recalibration of risk tolerance to adapt to the high-stakes environment of great power competition. This involves preparing NSW forces for the increased likelihood of confrontation with advanced military technologies and well-equipped adversaries.
2. Technological Adoption: Embracing new technologies is crucial for maintaining a competitive edge. This includes the integration of cutting-edge developments in autonomous and unmanned systems, which can perform a variety of tasks ranging from intelligence gathering to kinetic strikes without putting human operators at risk.
3. Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML): AI and ML are transforming military operations by providing advanced analytical capabilities, enhancing decision-making processes, and enabling the handling of vast amounts of data with unprecedented speed and accuracy. These technologies are particularly valuable in complex maritime environments where rapid processing of information can be a decisive factor.
4. Operational Doctrine: A reimagined operational doctrine is necessary to align NSW’s approach with the demands of rimland warfare. This includes developing strategies that leverage the strengths of autonomous systems and AI to conduct distributed operations, ensuring NSW units can operate effectively across dispersed maritime domains.
5. Training and Development: To fully harness these new capabilities, NSW personnel must receive training that reflects the technological advancements and the strategic shift. This includes familiarization with autonomous systems, AI-driven analytics, and the tactics, techniques, and procedures that will define future operations.

Training for Tomorrow’s Conflicts

Training for the future of warfare, especially in the context of rimland warfare, is evolving to meet the complex challenges that NSW operators may face. The focus is on preparing operators for a range of scenarios that require stealth, agility, and advanced technological support.

1. Clandestine Insertion and Extraction: Operators are trained in covert methods of entering and exiting contested areas, often behind enemy lines. This training includes techniques for minimizing detection by enemy forces, such as using natural cover and avoiding known surveillance areas. The use of specialized equipment for silent propulsion in water or low-noise aircraft for air insertion is also emphasized.
2. Distributed Operations: Emphasizing the importance of small, autonomous units capable of operating independently across a wide area, distributed operations training prepares operators for scenarios where centralized command may not be feasible. This includes developing skills in decision-making, resource management, and inter-unit communication to coordinate actions over large distances and in complex environments.
3. Advanced Communication Systems: Training incorporates the use of advanced, secure communication systems akin to the StarLink-style network. These systems provide a resilient and redundant method of communication that can function even in environments where traditional communication infrastructure is compromised or non-existent. The use of low Earth orbit satellites ensures that operators can maintain situational awareness and coordinate with command and other units without relying on ground-based systems.
4. Encrypted One-Way Communication: To maintain operational security, operators are trained to use encrypted one-way communication systems. These systems allow for the secure transmission of orders and intelligence without the risk of interception or decryption by adversaries. The training ensures that operators are proficient in the use of these systems and understand the protocols for secure communication in a contested environment.
5. Imaging Satellites: Utilizing a constellation of imaging satellites provides operators with real-time intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities. Training includes interpreting satellite imagery to plan missions, identify threats, and gain a strategic advantage over adversaries. The ability to leverage these assets effectively is crucial for planning and executing operations in the rimland.
6. Cybersecurity: As cyber warfare becomes increasingly prevalent, training also covers the protection of communication networks and information systems from cyber attacks. Operators learn to recognize and respond to cyber threats, ensuring the integrity of their operations and the security of sensitive data.

The Cognitive Cold War

The term “Cognitive Cold War” encapsulates the modern geopolitical landscape where the struggle for power extends beyond traditional military confrontations to encompass the realms of information, influence, and perception. In this era, the ability to shape narratives, influence public opinion, and control the flow of information can be as impactful as physical force. As such, Naval Special Warfare (NSW) operators must adapt and develop a diverse set of skills to effectively engage in this multifaceted battlefield.

1. Cyber Warfare: In the digital age, cyber warfare has become a critical component of national defense. NSW operators must be proficient in offensive and defensive cyber operations, understanding not only how to protect critical infrastructure from cyber attacks but also how to disrupt adversaries’ networks. This requires continuous training in the latest cyber tactics and technologies, as well as an understanding of the cyber landscape and potential threats.
2. Cultural Understanding: Success in modern operations often hinges on the ability to navigate complex cultural landscapes. NSW must prioritize cultural intelligence to build rapport with local populations, understand regional dynamics, and operate effectively in diverse environments. This includes recognizing cultural nuances, respecting local customs, and leveraging cultural insights to enhance mission outcomes.
3. Language Proficiency: Language skills are indispensable for NSW operators working in multinational contexts. Proficiency in local languages facilitates direct communication with allies and local populations, enhances situational awareness, and contributes to the success of psychological operations. Language training should be tailored to the regions where operators are likely to be deployed, ensuring they can communicate effectively and understand the linguistic subtleties that could impact their missions.

Conclusion

As we look to the future, the role of Naval Special Warfare is clear: to serve as a crucial strategic tool in the U.S. military’s arsenal, ready to adapt and fight differently in the Eurasian rimland war. By embracing innovation, enhancing training, and expanding their operational scope, NSW will continue to be a formidable force in protecting national interests and maintaining global stability.