The Economics of Artillery Shells in the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russo-Ukrainian War has brought to the forefront the significance of artillery shells in modern warfare. The rapid consumption of ammunition by Ukraine, faster than the West can produce, underscores the strategic importance of these munitions. With over 70% of casualties resulting from artillery fire, the side with superior firepower holds a distinct advantage.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Oleksiy Reznikov, revealed that while Ukraine uses an average of 110,000 units of 155 mm caliber shells monthly, they have the capacity to fire up to 594,000 shells if they had the ammunition. This disparity highlights a logistical challenge: a significant portion of the Western artillery systems in Ukraine remains idle due to ammunition shortages.

The United States, prior to the Russian invasion, produced a mere 16,000 155mm artillery shells monthly, a number tailored to its own military needs. The U.S. military traditionally hasn’t relied heavily on prolonged artillery duels. However, the war in Ukraine has demonstrated the undeniable efficacy of large quantities of Howitzers firing unguided shells. As a result, the U.S. is now aiming to ramp up its production to 80,000 shells per month by 2024, a staggering 500% increase.

However, even with this ambitious goal, the combined artillery production of the U.S. and the European Union would still fall short of Ukraine’s stated needs. The EU, with only a dozen of its member states capable of producing 155mm shells, aims to boost its production to 83,000 shells monthly. Even combined with the U.S.’s projected output, this would only amount to 163,000 shells monthly, less than half of Ukraine’s requirement.

Russia, on the other hand, has been firing artillery at a much higher rate. In 2022, they fired between 20,000 to 60,000 shells daily, translating to a staggering 600,000 to 1,800,000 shells monthly. By 2023, their artillery fire rate had decreased by 75%, likely due to supply issues. Still, they managed to fire approximately 440,000 rounds monthly, dwarfing Ukraine’s firepower.

The West’s response to Ukraine’s ammunition needs has been commendable but insufficient. The U.S. has donated over 2 million 155mm artillery rounds from its stockpiles, and Europe has been depleting its own reserves to support Ukraine. However, the sheer volume of ammunition required by Ukraine has highlighted significant industrial bottlenecks in munition production. The primary challenge isn’t the availability of raw materials but the machinery and production lines required to manufacture the munitions.

Precision-guided munitions, like the Excalibur shell, offer a potential solution. These shells, guided by GPS, can hit targets with remarkable accuracy. However, their high cost and limited production make them a scarce resource. The U.S. has only produced about 15,000 Excalibur rounds to date, with a mere 1,000 produced annually.

Another critical aspect of the artillery war is the maintenance and longevity of the artillery systems themselves. The barrels of Howitzers, which bear the brunt of the wear and tear, have a limited lifespan. As these barrels wear out, their range and accuracy diminish, necessitating replacements. This creates another logistical challenge: ensuring a steady supply of new barrels to keep the artillery guns operational.

Counter-battery fire, or the tactic of using artillery to destroy enemy artillery, has emerged as a pivotal strategy in the conflict. By effectively neutralizing the enemy’s firepower, an army can gain a significant advantage on the battlefield. The Ukrainians, aided by counter-battery radars and aerial drones, have been notably successful in this aspect, often neutralizing more Russian artillery than they lose.

However, the war has also brought with it a dark legacy: unexploded ordnance. Both cluster munitions and regular artillery shells can fail to detonate upon impact, turning vast swathes of land into minefields. As of August 2023, over 30% of Ukrainian territory is contaminated, making it the most mined country globally.

In conclusion, the Russo-Ukrainian War has underscored the strategic importance of artillery in modern warfare. While the West’s support for Ukraine has been commendable, the sheer volume of ammunition required has highlighted significant challenges in munition production and logistics. As the conflict rages on, the race to outproduce and outgun the enemy will undoubtedly play a pivotal role in determining the war’s outcome.