The Dynamics of the Ukraine Air War in 2024: Insights from Professor Justin Bronk
As the conflict in Ukraine continues into its third year, the air war has become a critical aspect of the ongoing hostilities. The recent interview with Professor Justin Bronk, a Senior Research Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), sheds light on the evolving dynamics of this crucial front.
Adaptation and Attrition
Adaptation and Attrition One of the key themes discussed by Professor Bronk is the adaptation of both Russian and Ukrainian air forces to the prolonged conflict. The air war has demonstrated a significant level of attrition, with both sides experiencing the wear and tear of their air capabilities due to sustained operations. This has led to a continuous need for resupply and sustainment, emphasizing the importance of logistical support in modern warfare. In addition to these challenges, Ukrainian air defense forces have been adapting to Russian strikes with “active countermeasures by means of electronic warfare,” which could be a turning point for Ukraine’s electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
Transition to Western Platforms A notable development going into 2024 is Ukraine’s transition to Western platforms. This shift could potentially alter the balance of power in the skies, as Ukraine seeks to integrate more advanced technology and weaponry provided by its allies. Professor Bronk discusses the implications of this transition and how it might affect the tactics and strategies employed by both sides. The introduction of F-16 fighter jets, described by a Ukrainian pilot as akin to upgrading from an old Nokia to an iPhone, is a prime example of this shift. The Air Force Capability Coalition (AFCC) has also met to discuss the progress of Ukraine’s F-16 program, including training the Ukrainian Air Force to operate, service, and maintain these advanced aircraft. This transition is part of a broader strategy to enhance Ukraine’s defense capabilities in the face of ongoing conflict and to better position the country within the context of its alliances and defense partnerships.
Russia’s Airframe and Munitions Advantage
Russia’s Airframe and Munitions Advantage Despite the challenges faced, Russia continues to leverage its significant advantage in airframes and munitions, including the deployment of glide-bombs. The interview explores how Russia is attempting to derive more benefit from its numerical and technological superiority, and what this means for the Ukrainian defense efforts. In recent developments, Russia’s defense industry has increased production of missiles, including the Kh-101, Russia’s long-range air-launched cruise missile, and ballistic missiles fired by the Iskander-M system. However, Russian missile production still cannot sustain Moscow’s desired usage rate, nor replace the thousands of missiles launched since February 2022. To supplement its stocks, Russia has looked to North Korea and Iran for short-range ballistic missiles, which can help stretch Ukraine’s air defense coverage.
The Role of Airpower The conversation with Professor Bronk also delves into the broader role of airpower in the conflict. Air superiority has always been a decisive factor in modern warfare, and the Ukraine air war is no exception. The ability to control the skies can significantly influence the outcome of ground operations, making the air war a pivotal element of the overall military strategy. The air war in Ukraine has been a glimpse at the future of air warfare, highlighting the importance of air, space, and intelligence capabilities. Despite Russia’s initial advantages, Ukrainian forces have effectively countered with a small and aging force of fourth-generation fighters and capable short- and medium-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). This dynamic conflict has underscored the democratization of airpower and the return of mass to air and space operations as critical factors in modern warfare.
Looking Ahead
As the fighting is expected to evolve in 2024, Professor Bronk provides insights into the potential developments and challenges that lie ahead. The interview is not only a reflection on the past but also an informed speculation on the future trajectory of the air war in Ukraine. The ongoing conflict has seen recent significant events, such as Ukraine’s successful downing of another Russian A-50 aircraft over the Azov Sea. This incident underscores the continued volatility of the air war and the advancements in Ukrainian air defense capabilities.
Moreover, analysts and military experts are assessing the prospects for the year ahead with caution. They agree that three fundamentals will determine the trajectory of the coming months: managing expectations for Ukraine’s spring offensive due to a lack of gear and personnel, Russia’s artillery superiority with the help of its allies, and Ukraine’s need for Western air defense and long-range missiles to mount a credible, sustained defense.
The war’s outcome remains uncertain, with political decisions in Washington and Brussels playing a crucial role. The West’s unity, which has been strong, is showing signs of strain, and hesitation could embolden Putin. However, the EU’s decision to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova implies continued backing for Kyiv. The effectiveness of Ukraine’s defensive strategy in 2024 will heavily rely on the level of support provided by its partners, with priorities including vast amounts of artillery ammunition, electronic warfare systems, strike drones, additional air defense capabilities, and long-range missiles.
In conclusion, the interview with Professor Justin Bronk offers a comprehensive analysis of the Ukraine air war in 2024. It highlights the complexities of aerial warfare and the specific challenges faced by the countries involved in the conflict. For those interested in military strategy and airpower, this discussion provides valuable perspectives on one of the most significant aspects of the ongoing war in Ukraine.
