The Decline of Russia’s Arms Export Industry: Causes and Consequences
The Russian arms export industry is a strategically important sector and a large employer in Russia. It also plays a vital role in the global arms market, ranking second after the United States in terms of the volume and value of arms exports. Moreover, the Russian arms export industry is a key instrument of Russia’s foreign policy, as it helps Moscow to maintain and expand its influence, alliances, and interests in various regions of the world. However, this industry has faced serious challenges and setbacks in the past decade, especially since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2022. This essay will argue that the war in Ukraine has severely damaged the Russian arms export industry, both in terms of its reputation and its capacity, and that this has created opportunities for other major arms exporters, such as the United States and China, to gain more influence and customers in the international arena. The essay will first explain how arms exports are used for political and economic purposes, then analyze how the war in Ukraine has affected the Russian arms industry, and finally examine how the United States and China are responding to the situation.
The Strategy of Arms Exports
Arms exports are not only a source of revenue and employment, but also a means of achieving strategic objectives for any big player in the geopolitical field. There are two main goals behind arms exports: foreign policy influence and a virtuous cycle of more cash and better weapons. First, by selling arms to other countries, a state can exert influence over their policies, behavior, and alignment, as well as gain access to their resources, markets, and territories. For example, Russia has used arms exports to offer political concessions, align interests, and enforce credible commitments with its customers, such as India, China, Egypt, and Algeria. Second, by exporting arms, a state can generate more income and feedback, which can be reinvested in research and development, production, and innovation, leading to more advanced and competitive products, and thus more demand and exports. For example, Russia has used arms exports to spread the fixed costs of research and development over more units, produce more sophisticated and diversified products, such as the S-400 air defense system and the Kalibr cruise missile, and expand the domestic manufacturing capacity, such as the Sevmash shipyard.
The Impact of the War in Ukraine on the Russian Arms Industry
However, the war in Ukraine has caused major problems for the Russian arms industry, both as a consequence of battlefield performance and investment capacity. First, the war in Ukraine has exposed the poor quality and reliability of some of the Russian weapons, as well as the vulnerability of the Russian supply chain to Western sanctions. For example, the Buk missile system that shot down the MH17 flight in 2014 was widely criticized for its lack of accuracy and accountability, and the loss of access to Ukrainian components and technologies, such as engines and turbines, has disrupted the production and delivery of many Russian weapons, such as helicopters and ships. Second, the war in Ukraine has reduced the economic stability and human capital of Russia, making it harder to invest in research and development, offer financing, and produce sophisticated weapons. For example, the war in Ukraine has drained the Russian budget and reserves, increased the inflation and debt, and triggered the depreciation of the ruble, which have all negatively affected the purchasing power and profitability of the Russian arms industry. Moreover, the war in Ukraine has caused a brain drain and a demographic decline in Russia, which have both reduced the availability and quality of the workforce and the engineers for the Russian arms industry. As a result, some of the flagship projects of the Russian arms industry, such as the Su-57 stealth fighter and the Armata tank, have faced delays and cancellations.
The Response of the United States and China to the Situation
The damage to the Russian arms industry is causing immediate reconfigurations to the worldwide arms trade, with the United States and China trying to exploit the situation. First, the United States is trying to attract more customers for its weapons by offering political and security benefits, especially to counterbalance China, which is seen as the main rival and threat by Washington. For example, the United States has strengthened its alliances and partnerships with countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India, providing them with military assistance and training, as well as promoting its values and norms, such as democracy and human rights. Moreover, the United States has increased its arms exports to countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait, which are involved in the conflicts in the Middle East and are opposed to Iran, another adversary of Washington. Second, China is trying to become the default exporter for countries aligned against the United States by offering cheaper and more diverse weapons, although with some quality issues. For example, China has expanded its market share in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, providing them with flexible payment options and technology transfers, as well as adapting its products to the local needs and preferences. Moreover, China has developed and exported some of its own advanced and innovative weapons, such as the J-20 stealth fighter and the DF-21D anti-ship ballistic missile, which challenge the US dominance and superiority in the global arms market.
Conclusion
In conclusion, this essay has argued that the war in Ukraine has severely damaged the Russian arms export industry, both in terms of its reputation and its capacity, and that this has created opportunities for other major arms exporters, such as the United States and China, to gain more influence and customers in the international arena. The essay has shown how arms exports are used for political and economic purposes, how the war in Ukraine has affected the Russian arms industry, and how the United States and China are responding to the situation. The implications of this analysis are that the global arms trade is undergoing a significant transformation, with new actors, dynamics, and challenges emerging, and that the future of the Russian arms industry is uncertain and precarious, as it faces increasing competition and isolation in the international arena.
