The Death of Iran’s President: Why It Matters

The recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has significant implications both domestically and internationally. It is easy to downplay this event by arguing that Raisi was “just” the president and not the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, this perspective oversimplifies the complex political dynamics within Iran and its broader impact on global geopolitics. The death of Raisi matters for various reasons, and understanding these implications requires a closer look at the context and consequences of his demise.

Background: Raisi’s Visit to Azerbaijan

On May 19, 2024, President Ebrahim Raisi visited Iran’s border with Azerbaijan to inaugurate a dam and hydroelectric plant along the countries’ shared river border. This visit was significant given the recent tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan. The two countries had previously been at odds due to Azerbaijan’s growing relations with Israel and the disputed border with Armenia. Former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had once described any changes to this border as a red line for Iran. Despite these tensions, the visit proceeded smoothly, with standard diplomatic formalities observed.

The Helicopter Crash

The situation took a tragic turn when Raisi’s Bell 212 helicopter, returning to Iran, crashed in East Azerbaijan province due to thick fog. The crash site was challenging to locate, and it took rescuers half a day to confirm Raisi’s death. The incident has raised questions about potential foul play, especially given Iran’s geopolitical adversaries. However, the prevailing theory suggests it was a case of pilot error exacerbated by poor weather conditions, similar to the 2020 crash that killed basketball star Kobe Bryant.

The Possibility of Foul Play

The speculation around foul play stems from the political tensions surrounding Iran. With many countries currently opposed to Iran, the opportunity for a sabotage operation was plausible. However, attributing such an act would be challenging, potentially encouraging other actors to carry out similar operations without fear of immediate reprisal. This situation underscores the delicate balance of deterrence in international relations, where imperfect attribution can lead to increased risks.

Potential for a Manufactured Crisis

There is also the possibility that Iran could use the accident to manufacture a crisis, rallying the population around a perceived external threat. This tactic would aim to consolidate internal support and justify aggressive foreign policies. Historically, Iran has leveraged such crises to strengthen its political position, both domestically and internationally.

Impact of Sanctions and Western Policies

The crash also highlights the impact of Western sanctions on Iran. The Bell 212 helicopter was produced in the West, and Iran’s inability to access replacement parts due to sanctions could have contributed to the accident. Mohammad Javad Zarif pointed to the United States’ embargo on aircraft and aviation parts as a contributing factor. This situation mirrors the current sanctions on Russia, where Western aircraft continue to operate without access to necessary parts, posing similar risks.

The Role of the Iranian President

While the supreme leader holds ultimate authority in Iran, the president plays a crucial role in setting the country’s agenda and managing day-to-day governance. Raisi’s death, therefore, is not politically irrelevant. His presidency marked a shift towards hardline policies and strengthening Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” against Western-aligned parties in the region. Raisi was also a potential successor to Ayatollah Khamenei, making his death significant for Iran’s long-term political landscape.

Short-Term Political Implications

In the short term, Iran must hold a special election within 50 days to elect a new president. The acting president, Iran’s first vice president, has already assumed office with the Ayatollah’s consent. This election could become a focal point for internal dissent and protest, similar to the 2009 Iranian presidential election, which saw widespread protests over disputed results. The election may also serve as a trial balloon for risky policies, testing public sentiment and potentially shifting Iran’s political direction.

Potential Shifts in Iranian Policies

The upcoming election could influence Iran’s policies, particularly its support for regional proxies and its involvement in international conflicts, such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While significant policy changes are unlikely, the election results could prompt minor adjustments to address domestic unrest.

A Window of Opportunity for the West

The current political turmoil in Iran presents a window of opportunity for the West to engage with the country or its regional rivals. The U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israel may find this an opportune moment to advance their interests, although Israel’s ongoing conflict in Gaza complicates these efforts.

Conclusion

The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is more than a tragic accident; it is a pivotal event with far-reaching consequences. It affects Iran’s internal politics, its relations with neighboring countries, and the broader geopolitical landscape. Understanding these implications is crucial for anticipating the future direction of Iran and its role in the international community. As the situation unfolds, the world will be watching closely to see how Iran navigates this critical juncture.