The Dance of the Hawks: Russo-Turkish Relations
In the dizzying dance of geopolitics, few relationships present a more bewildering tango than that of Russia and Turkey. According to a meticulously researched report by Pavel Baev of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), published by the French Institute of International Relations in May 2021, this duo epitomizes what it means to be ‘frenemies’ on a global stage. From Syria to the Black Sea, these nations sway between strategic partnership and outright rivalry, all while impacting the security and stability of Europe’s periphery.
A Complex Historical Tapestry
The report details that the roots of the relationship stretch far beyond the contemporary postures of Putin and Erdogan. Russia and Turkey share a rich, fraught history marked by wars, territorial conflicts, and even periods of cultural and religious exchange. This history has left an indelible imprint on how the two nations perceive each other. It is the stage upon which today’s intricate ballet is performed, with both nations keenly aware of their historical narratives and mutual perceptions.
The Economics of ‘It’s Complicated’
But what sustains this relationship in today’s global landscape? According to the report, economics plays a pivotal role. Turkey is Russia’s second-largest trading partner after China, with a trade volume totaling $21.5 billion in 2020. Russia, in turn, is Turkey’s primary supplier of natural gas, accounting for a significant 33% of its imports. These numbers aren’t just statistics; they’re the lifelines of economies, industries, and livelihoods. Yet, even this economic interdependence has seen its share of turbulence — thanks to sanctions, currency fluctuations, and other variables.
Leaders in Lockstep
Then there’s the personal rapport between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Both leaders share an authoritarian bend and a pragmatic, if not cynical, approach to foreign policy. Frequent dialogues and summits between the two have emerged as stabilizing threads in an otherwise volatile relationship. Their personal dynamics add a layer of nuance to the official diplomatic channels, often serving as a tempering force.
Divergent Interests on Regional Crises
However, let’s not mistake personal rapport for ideological harmony. The two countries have divergent interests in multiple arenas — from Syria to Libya, and from the Black Sea to the Caucasus. One striking example is their different stances on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While they agreed to establish a joint monitoring center in Azerbaijan, their views on the status of the disputed territory and the role of other regional actors like Iran and France are poles apart.
A Fragile Balance
The report aptly concludes that Russia and Turkey have so far dodged direct confrontation. But let’s not kid ourselves; this relationship is as fragile as it is unpredictable. A survey by the Levada Center, a Russian independent polling agency, found that Russian public opinion towards Turkey is almost evenly split, with 40% holding a positive view and 31% a negative one. The survey further revealed that 28% of Russians consider Turkey an ally, while 36% see it as an enemy or competitor.
The European Union and NATO: Time to Step Up
The PRIO report suggests that both the European Union and NATO should engage more assertively with Russia and Turkey. Indeed, it’s high time for these organizations to transition from being mere spectators to active choreographers in this complex dance.
In conclusion, understanding the Russo-Turkish relationship isn’t merely an academic exercise; it’s a prerequisite for grasping the larger geopolitics that influence stability in Europe’s neighborhood and beyond. The relationship is a microcosm of modern diplomacy — fraught with historical complexities, economic imperatives, and personal politics. It’s a delicate balance that could tip into confrontation or blossom into strategic partnership, affecting the fates of nations and continents along the way.
To paraphrase W.B. Yeats, this dance between Russia and Turkey is a widening gyre, and the falconer — be it the European Union, NATO, or some other entity — needs to ensure that the falcon can still hear the call. Otherwise, we might all be caught in a whirlwind of unpredictability and chaos.
