The Crumbling Facade of Putin’s Influence: An Analysis

The recent African Summit held in St. Petersburg has been a telling event, shedding light on the waning influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Africa. The summit, which saw a significant drop in attendance from African leaders compared to the previous one in 2019, has been a clear indication of Putin’s diminishing clout.

The joint statement issued at the summit, which spoke of unity and the pursuit of compensation for colonialism, among other things, was met with skepticism. Putin’s offer to supplement grain to African countries, following his withdrawal from a grain deal with Ukraine, was deemed insufficient by the African Union. This, coupled with Putin’s readiness to negotiate with Ukraine, has raised eyebrows and questions about Russia’s continued influence in Africa.

Putin’s influence in Africa has been dwindling for some time now. The termination of the grain export arrangement with Ukraine and the bombing of the port in Odessa have had a significant impact. Several African leaders have criticized Putin for these actions. The Russian propaganda, which has been effective when there was some truth to it or when it resonated with what people wanted to believe, is beginning to crumble. Putin’s actions have disrupted the grain trade and led to higher international prices, which is hard to conceal.

The Wagner Group, a private military company with close ties to the Russian government, has been a significant player in maintaining Russia’s influence in Africa. The group supports several African dictatorships and has an interest in maintaining links to Russia. However, the recent summit does not seem to be a demonstration of Russian strength or influence.

The summit also brought to light the visible development of cracks within the Russian leadership. Different people within the leadership have different interests, and they’re beginning to compete with one another. This internal strife is evident in the aftermath of the failed mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group. The rebellion has highlighted the importance of the Wagner Group for Putin and the Kremlin network. The group is essentially Russia’s foreign policy in Africa and a significant source of money for Putin’s cronies.

The rebellion has also exposed Putin’s mindset. He is managing a war that didn’t go as planned and dealing with the aftermath of a failed mutiny. Reports suggest that Putin froze for 24 hours when the mutiny was taking place, even though he had been given a heads up. This reaction, coupled with the public’s indifference to his fate, raises questions about Putin’s decision-making and his popularity among the Russian people.

The Russian state has been encouraging citizens to be apathetic for many years. This has been achieved through confusing and contradictory propaganda and discouraging people from forming independent groups or associations. However, when there was a real attack on the Russian state or the Russian army, citizens were apathetic about that too. The Prigozhin rebellion has sparked a political conversation in Moscow, a city that had been politically dormant.

The rebellion has also raised questions about Putin’s popularity among the Russian people. While it’s difficult to conduct polling in the country, Putin still seems to be quite popular with some part of the population. However, the rebellion and the subsequent events have made it apparent that the Ukrainians have a very different opinion of Putin.

The Russian propaganda machine is now in a difficult position of having to explain why the Ukrainians are making progress while the Russians are not. The war began because Putin said that Ukraine is part of Russia and that everyone will welcome the Russians. However, more than a year and a half later, this has not happened, and the Russians are running short of explanations.

In conclusion, the recent events have exposed the crumbling facade of Putin’s influence. The African Summit, the failed mutiny, and the ongoing war with Ukraine have all contributed to this. The Russian propaganda machine is struggling to maintain the narrative, and Putin’s popularity is being questioned. The future of Putin’s influence, both in Africa and globally, remains uncertain.