The Breaching of the Nova Kakhovka Dam: Unpacking the Consequences and Implications
On June 6, 2023, the Nova Kakhovka Dam fell, ceasing to exist as a vital strategic point in the ongoing conflict. For the preceding eight months, the world has been engrossed in discussions on the looming challenges surrounding the dam’s precarious status. The dam’s breaching brought about a myriad of adverse consequences, affecting multiple fronts: a humanitarian crisis triggered by massive flooding downriver, significant obstacles for Ukraine’s counteroffensive, a precarious situation for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, and a drastic change in the water situation in Crimea.
Humanitarian Crisis: Flooding and the Fallout
Arguably the most pressing issue was the immediate flooding experienced in the areas downriver of the dam. A satellite image of the area showed the dam to the east, with Kherson City located to the north. The line of control at the time of the dam’s destruction followed the east-west river flow, with Ukraine controlling the northern side and Russia the southern side.
The impact of the flood was dependent on the terrain. The relatively higher elevation of Kherson City sheltered it from the worst of the flooding. In contrast, the southern region, under Russian control, suffered severely due to its low-lying, swampy terrain. However, there were two silver linings. First, the affected southern region had a smaller population density, and secondly, the water levels downstream peaked about eight hours after the breach, allowing some time for evacuation efforts.
Yet, the aftermath of the dam’s destruction has been far from transient. Drawing parallels to Ukraine’s tactical destruction of the Irpin River Dam at the beginning of the invasion, it was evident that recovery from such a disaster would take more than a year. Considering the geographical conditions down south, the situation looked even bleaker.
A point to note is the strategic functioning of the dam’s sluices, or water gates. Even though the dam straddled the line of control, Russia dictated the sluices’ operation. It was suspected that Russia deliberately managed the sluices to aggravate the flooding following the dam’s destruction. Furthermore, the long-term electrical implications of the dam’s destruction were alarming. As a hydroelectric power plant generating 357 megawatts, the dam’s annihilation signified a permanent loss of power for hundreds of thousands of homes.
Military Implications: Defensive Resources and Counterattacks
Simultaneously, the dam’s fall brought about significant shifts in the military balance. Russia had been grappling with a manpower shortage, struggling to evenly distribute its defensive resources in anticipation of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. The dam’s destruction, paradoxically, seemed to alleviate this problem. The flooding created a natural barrier, potentially hindering Ukrainian counterattacks across the river, particularly since Russia had destroyed other river crossings during its retreat in November 2022.
The dam’s destruction, consequently, strengthened Russia’s position in Kherson and allowed the redirection of soldiers to more vulnerable locations. The timing of these events was quite notable, with rumors of a Ukrainian counteroffensive starting just a day before the dam’s breaching.
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant: An Emerging Crisis
A major international concern in the aftermath of the dam’s destruction was the precarious situation of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, located upstream from the dam. Despite recommendations from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and other watchdogs for its shutdown due to the war, residual heat persisted in the reactors and the on-site cooling pools of spent fuel.
The dam played a crucial role in maintaining the water level necessary for the power plant’s cooling process. The IAEA indicated that if the water level dropped to 12.7 meters, the cooling pumps would fail. The positive aspect was that this potential problem was foreseen. The operators had over-pumped water into cooling channels, creating a reserve supply, and the power plant also had a cooling pond designed to stay above the river’s water level as a safety measure.
Though there was an estimated buffer period of months to find a long-term solution, the potential for a catastrophic accident was far from negligible. Any strike that caused the cooling pond to leak would trigger immediate and serious problems.
The North Crimean Canal: A Dry Future
The dam’s destruction also had a significant impact on the North Crimean Canal, the aqueduct that carried water from the Dnipro River to the Crimean Peninsula. Following Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in 2014, Ukraine had shut off the water supply, which Russia promptly restored upon invading in February 2022. However, the dam’s destruction sealed the canal’s fate. With the dam’s destruction, the canal would run dry, and Crimea’s water situation would drastically change.
The fact that the dam also controlled the water supply to the canal complicated matters further. Accusations flew in both directions about who was responsible for the dam’s destruction. If Russia was indeed responsible, it might signal a Kremlin outlook that is not optimistic about maintaining the current territorial status quo. Given the canal’s importance for irrigation both within Kherson and Crimea, this created a long-lasting problem, independent of any future peace agreements.
The aftermath of the Nova Kakhovka Dam’s destruction is a complex web of interconnected issues that range from immediate humanitarian crises to longer-term political and military implications. It’s a stark reminder of how critical infrastructure can become a focal point in modern warfare, with impacts that extend far beyond the battlefield. The situation calls for global attention and action, not just for immediate relief but also for sustainable long-term solutions.
