The ATACMS Missile in Ukraine

Recent news that President Biden has committed to sending a small number of Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to Ukraine marks a major policy shift for the United States. This decision has significant implications, not only for the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia but also for the broader geopolitical landscape. In this blog post, we will explore the capabilities of the ATACMS, why this decision is a sea change in U.S. policy, and what this could mean for the future.

What is ATACMS and Why is it Important?

The ATACMS is a short-range tactical ballistic missile manufactured by Lockheed Martin. It’s designed to deliver a 500 lb warhead up to 190 miles at speeds exceeding Mach 3. Unlike other ballistic missiles, the ATACMS can be launched from existing rocket artillery platforms, such as the M270 or M142. This makes it a more versatile weapon, capable of both rapid deployment and stealthy operation.

The ATACMS has a storied operational history. It was first used in combat during Operation Desert Storm in 1991, where it had a 100% kill rate. Since then, it has been modernized multiple times. The latest variant, the M57, boasts GPS guidance for improved accuracy. The M57 can also carry a 500-pound high-explosive warhead that can penetrate hardened targets. It has a range of 70 to 300 km, depending on the conditions of the launch. The M57 has been used by the US Army in Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as by South Korea and Turkey in their regional conflicts.

The U.S. Policy Reversal

Until now, the United States has never exported the ATACMS due to its strategic importance. With approximately 3,700 in its arsenal but only about 1,700 operational, the U.S. has been extremely cautious about who gets access to this powerful weapon. The decision to send 50 ATACMS missiles to Ukraine as part of a $200 million military assistance package, therefore, represents a major reversal. It indicates a stronger U.S. commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression and intervention.

The Strategic Importance for Ukraine

The ATACMS offers Ukraine a distinct advantage. It provides the ability to strike deep within enemy territory, targeting Russian command centers, logistics hubs, and air bases that are otherwise out of reach. This could act as a powerful deterrent against further Russian advances. It also has a high speed and accuracy, making it difficult to intercept or evade. The US has reportedly sent the ATACMS with cluster munitions, which could inflict more damage on massed enemy forces. This missile is compatible with the existing Ukrainian rocket launchers, such as the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), which can fire two ATACMS missiles per pod. The ATACMS is an aging system, however, and the US is developing a new Precision Strike Missile (PRSM) that will have a longer range and more capabilities.

Russia’s Reaction and the Global Impact

Russia has vociferously objected to the U.S. decision, calling it a “grave mistake” that threatens regional stability.

Russia’s decision to warn the US of a “grave mistake” for supplying long-range weapons to Ukraine is a sign of desperation and frustration, as Russia is losing the war in Ukraine. Ukraine has launched a successful counter-offensive in the south, recapturing territory and crossing the Dnipro river. This has put pressure on Russia’s supply lines and exposed its vulnerabilities. In addition to this, the Russia’s soldiers and mercenaries have low morale and motivation, as they are fighting a war that is unpopular at home and abroad. Many of them are conscripts or volunteers who are poorly trained and equipped. They face harsh conditions and high casualties, with little support or recognition from their government.

The Transition to PRSM

Interestingly, the U.S.’s willingness to part with some ATACMS units may be connected to the impending introduction of the Precision Strike Missile (PRSM). Slated to replace the ATACMS, the PRSM promises to be more accurate, reliable, and versatile, with a range exceeding 500 kilometers. Lockheed Martin, which is developing the PRSM, expects it to be operational by 2023. This newer system will not only enhance the U.S. military’s capabilities but is also being considered by allies like Australia and the UK. Moreover, the PRSM will have a modular design that allows for future upgrades and different payloads, such as hypersonic glide vehicles or anti-ship missiles. It will also be compatible with both the M270 MLRS and the M142 HIMARS launchers, increasing its flexibility and survivability. The PRSM is expected to be a key component of the U.S. Army’s long-range precision fires modernization effort and a vital asset for multi-domain operations.

Conclusions

The decision to send ATACMS missiles to Ukraine is far more than a simple arms deal. It’s a significant gesture of support from the United States, and it promises to alter the strategic landscape of the ongoing conflict with Russia. The move also ties into broader shifts in U.S. military capabilities, as the country prepares to transition to the next generation of missile technology.