The 2024 Presidential Election: Biden’s Strategy and the Unfolding Reality

As President Joe Biden gears up for the 2024 presidential election, his strategy is increasingly under scrutiny. When Biden first announced his intention to run for reelection, there was a clear sense of strategy that seemed poised for success. However, the unfolding political landscape suggests a more complex and challenging path than initially anticipated.

Biden’s Initial Strategy: Normalcy and Economic Recovery

Biden’s reelection strategy appeared to be rooted in a return to normalcy after the tumultuous years of the Trump presidency and the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic. His administration has overseen a significant economic recovery, with unemployment reaching a 54-year low in 2023. The idea was to position Biden as a stabilizing force, contrasting with the divisive and unpredictable nature of Donald Trump.

Biden aimed to leverage this economic recovery to gain the trust of independents and swing voters. The expectation was that Trump’s polarizing presence would split the Republican base, with factions preferring alternative candidates like Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. This division would, in theory, enable Biden to focus on winning over crucial swing states, just as he did in 2020.

The Current Landscape: A Surprising Shift

Contrary to these expectations, recent developments indicate a more daunting scenario for Biden. Trump is leading in almost all the swing states, and this is compounded by deeper, more troubling trends. Historically, polls have tended to underestimate Trump’s support rather than overestimate it, suggesting that Biden might face a tougher battle than anticipated.

Despite the robust economic recovery, Biden is not receiving the credit expected. Inflation, a pervasive issue affecting all Americans daily, seems to overshadow the positive economic indicators like low unemployment. According to a January NBC poll, Trump holds a 22-point lead over Biden regarding trust in handling the economy, marking a significant 15-point increase from 2020. This disparity highlights the complex relationship between economic realities and public perception.

Cultural and Policy Issues: A Mixed Bag

On cultural issues, the Democratic Party benefits from public opposition to Republican stances on abortion. However, Biden lags significantly behind Trump on immigration, with a 35-point deficit in public trust. While abortion rights remain a critical issue, their impact on a presidential race might be limited due to the state-level nature of these battles following the reversal of Roe v. Wade.

Moreover, the Democratic Party is experiencing internal strife, particularly over the war in Gaza. Prominent figures like Bernie Sanders have drawn parallels to the Vietnam War, suggesting that the conflict could deeply divide the party. This division is evident as only 33% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war, with critics on both sides of the issue.

Republican Unity and Trump’s Resilience

Meanwhile, the Republican Party appears to be rallying behind Trump. Any primary opposition he faced has largely dissipated, and the legal challenges he encounters seem to strengthen his base rather than weaken it. These trials keep Trump in the media spotlight, fueling his narrative of political persecution and garnering sympathy from broader segments of the public.

Despite the potential for his legal troubles to shift voter sentiment, current trends do not favor Biden. Even with potential outcomes like a felony conviction for Trump, which polls suggest could sway votes towards Biden, the overall trajectory remains challenging.

Third-Party Candidates and Potential Disruptions

The presence of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West, and Jill Stein adds another layer of complexity to Biden’s reelection bid. These candidates are likely to siphon votes away from Biden, further complicating his path to victory. The potential impact of these third-party runs cannot be underestimated, especially in a tightly contested election.

The Need for Bold Action

To reverse these trends, Biden needs to undertake bold and dramatic initiatives. One area where he could make significant strides is asylum policy, a contentious issue where decisive action could shift public perception and support. However, the challenge remains in addressing the perception of his competence. In 2020, Biden led Trump by nine points on this measure, but by January 2024, Trump had surged to a 16-point lead. This 25-point shift may reflect concerns about Biden’s age and perceived capacity to govern, a perception that is difficult to alter.

Conclusion

As the 2024 election approaches, Biden’s path to reelection is fraught with challenges. From economic perceptions and cultural issues to internal party divisions and the looming presence of Trump, the political landscape is more complex than initially anticipated. While there are opportunities for Biden to shift the narrative, it will require bold, strategic actions to overcome the current headwinds and secure a second term in office.