Taiwan’s New Submarine

There’s a common phrase: “It’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.” This saying rings especially true for Taiwan’s fledgling Indigenous Defense Submarine (IDS) program. As China flexes its military muscles in the South China Sea and beyond, Taiwan’s newly launched Narwhal-class submarine, also known as Haikun, comes as a much-needed morale booster. But is this a game-changing move that fundamentally shifts the region’s strategic balance? Or is it just a drop in the ocean, barely making a dent in Taiwan’s challenges?

A Small Fleet with Big Ambitions

Taiwan’s submarine force is, by all accounts, modest. Of its four operational submarines, two are obsolete models that have seen better days. Yet, Taiwan has made a bold foray into indigenous submarine construction, breaking free from the constraints imposed by political pressure from China. Beijing, as we know, views Taiwan as a rogue province and aims to bring it under its control, potentially by force. China’s posturing has also served to stifle Taiwan’s attempts to acquire military hardware from other countries, including past plans to build submarines in America.

The Haikun is a feather in Taiwan’s cap, a diesel-electric submarine that can stand shoulder to shoulder with many in its class. The vessel, based on a reverse-engineered Dutch design, incorporates American equipment and sensors, enhancing its capabilities. And this isn’t just a one-off venture — Taiwan plans to build a total of eight such submarines. While still dwarfed by China’s extensive and increasingly modern submarine fleet, Taiwan’s effort marks an important milestone for a self-reliant defense strategy.

Diversifying Naval Capabilities

Taiwan is not putting all its eggs in one basket. In addition to the Haikun, the country is venturing into other maritime projects, from autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) and even a mini-submarine. Although not much is publicly known about these projects, they could offer a variety of tactical options, from surveillance and reconnaissance to mine warfare. If implemented successfully, these innovations could become force multipliers, enhancing Taiwan’s capacity for asymmetric warfare — making an invasion from China a complex, costly, and therefore less attractive, proposition.

The International Implications

This drive toward indigenous defense capabilities also has broader geopolitical implications. At a time when the United States is recalibrating its military focus towards the Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan’s initiative could be interpreted as a statement of intent. It might even serve as a catalyst for further U.S.-Taiwan cooperation, potentially opening the doors for more direct military assistance or joint research and development projects. For other regional actors wary of China’s ambitions, Taiwan’s efforts send a clear message: the island nation will not be easily bullied.

Challenges and Reality Checks

However, while these are steps in the right direction, the challenges remain monumental. First, building and maintaining a fleet of modern submarines is a complex and costly enterprise. It’s one thing to launch a prototype, but scaling this to a full fleet will require financial commitments that may strain Taiwan’s defense budget. Second, as impressive as these strides may appear, they will not overnight erase the massive military imbalance between Taiwan and China. Lastly, indigenous projects take time to bear fruit — time that Taiwan may not have, given the urgency imposed by China’s increasing assertiveness.

Concluding Thoughts

Taiwan’s Haikun submarine is indeed a remarkable achievement, an inspiring tale of a small player defying the odds. Yet, it’s essential to view this development through a realistic lens. While the Haikun may not be a panacea for Taiwan’s security concerns, it symbolizes an important philosophical shift — from a strategy reliant on external assistance to one that also includes self-reliant capabilities. For Taiwan, the challenge now lies in balancing this newfound capability with the geopolitical realities of a volatile region. It’s a start, but there’s a long, uncertain journey ahead.