Taiwan: The Pendulum of Power in the South China Sea
Beijing’s interest in Taiwan is a topic that remains persistently at the centre of international attention, but recent rumblings suggest that the tension could be coming to a head. With a ticking 48-hour countdown dangled by diplomatic sources the UK, there’s a growing suspicion that China believes it could act swiftly and decisively, crossing the Taiwan Strait, landing on the island, and severing the military and political leadership of Taiwan before international consensus can intervene. Given the implications of the war in Ukraine reverberating across the globe, it’s time we talk about Taiwan.
Taiwan, or the Republic of China as it is officially known, is a vibrant and thriving democracy with close ties to the US and the wider world. After the government fled the mainland when Communists took power in China, Taiwan has become home to a population of around 24 million people. Some of its islands perch a mere 10 kilometres off China’s coast, acting as a conspicuous reminder of the geopolitical chasm separating them.
The island nation plays a crucial role on the global stage, especially in the realm of microprocessors. Taiwan is a tech titan, fabricating the tiny chips that power everything from our mobile phones to our cars, fridges, and more. These technological contributions afford Taiwan significant international clout, much to the chagrin of Beijing.
China has been vocal about its ambition to reunify Taiwan with the mainland, proposing target dates like 2049, a century after the split. However, ambiguity surrounds President Xi Jinping’s strategy. It remains uncertain whether China is prepared to instigate a military conflict for Taiwan or if they aim to reclaim it through economic and diplomatic means.
The US, while hesitant to openly declare military protection, has made clear it would not welcome a forceful takeover by China. Eli Ratner, a senior Pentagon official overseeing the Indo-Pacific region, has expressed doubt that anything drastic would happen before the decade ends, mainly because the turbulence from the war in Ukraine already has the international system in flux.
China’s desire to regain Taiwan is not merely geopolitical, but also deeply rooted in historical context. This unfinished business is a part of the century of humiliation that began in the mid-19th century with the Opium Wars with Britain. For China, reclaiming Taiwan is a crucial part of regaining national pride. No Chinese president could feasibly relinquish their claim to Taiwan without jeopardising their political stability.
It’s clear that a confrontation is on the horizon. President Xi Jinping has hinted at 2027 as a significant date, marking when the Chinese Army should be ready to reclaim Taiwan. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a conflict is imminent in 2027, but the intention is crystal clear. Taiwan is destined to be drawn back into China’s fold. It’s not a matter of if, but when.
Indeed, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister echoed these sentiments recently, viewing 2027 as a noteworthy year since it marks the expected start of Xi Jinping’s fourth term in power. A successful reunification could solidify his legacy, especially if he’s facing domestic political pressure.
But for all its ambitions, China’s military is an untested force. Although two million strong and growing rapidly, it hasn’t engaged in warfare since 1979, leaving question marks over its readiness and adaptability. Observing Russia’s struggles in Ukraine, China will have noted that size doesn’t guarantee victory, and international support can solidify unexpectedly.
An invasion of Taiwan would be far from straightforward. A daunting 70-mile journey across the Taiwan Strait, peppered with US-supplied anti-ship missiles, is only the first hurdle. Once ashore, China would face a formidable Taiwanese military and a resilient civilian population.
An invasion could begin with extended military exercises, designed to exhaust Taiwan’s forces. It could involve air and missile attacks against coastal defences, radar sites, and airfields, though population centres would likely be spared. A mass cyber attack to paralyse Taiwan’s decision-making bodies could precede a lightning strike, with the goal of a swift takeover before the international community can react.
There’s also the possibility of a limited incursion onto one of Taiwan’s outlying islands, forcing a diplomatic quandary. Given these scenarios, is the West prepared to handle another crisis while still heavily focused on Ukraine? It’s a gamble Xi Jinping might be willing to take.
