Strategic Strikes: How the Attack on the Crimean Bridge Shifts the Balance in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The early hours of July 17, 2023, marked a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The Crimean Bridge, a symbol of Russia’s strategic and symbolic foothold in the region, came under attack. This wasn’t the first time the bridge had been targeted, but the implications of this attack were far-reaching and potentially game-changing in the context of the ongoing war.

The Crimean Bridge, which opened in 2018, spans the Kerch Strait, transforming Crimea from a de facto island into a peninsula accessible by land from Russia. The bridge consists of two separate structures, one for passenger vehicles and the other for trains. It was Russia’s only ground-based access to Crimea, replacing an insufficient ferry system and becoming a lifeline for the peninsula.

To understand the significance of the recent attack, we need to rewind to October 8, 2022. On that day, a truck loaded with explosives detonated on the bridge, causing a small span to collapse into the water. The explosion was timed perfectly to ignite a fuel train on the rail bridge. Although Ukraine never formally claimed responsibility for the attack, the country’s official Twitter account posted a cryptic “sick burn” immediately afterward, and its post office released a set of stamps commemorating the event.

The attack was a strategic move by Ukraine to slow down Russian resupply efforts to the area, and it worked. The lines to get onto the bridge became enormous, causing significant delays and frustrations. A month later, Ukraine retook Kherson and forced Russian troops to the opposite side of the Dnieper River.

Fast forward to July 2023, and Ukraine was in the midst of another offensive. This time, however, the circumstances were different. The Kahovka Dam had been breached 41 days earlier, flooding the area downstream. The dam had provided the water level for the start of the North Crimean Canal, a waterway that supplied the bulk of Crimea’s potable water. With the dam gone, Crimea was forced to rely on the bridge for water supply, making the bridge an even more critical target.

The recent attack on the Crimean Bridge was part of a broader assault on Crimean infrastructure. On June 22, 2023, Ukraine targeted another Russian-held bridge, this time damaging the crossing over the Chonhar Strait. With these attacks, Russia was facing logistical issues everywhere in Crimea.

Unlike the previous attack, Ukraine appears to have used naval drones this time, which cruised along the surface before detonating under the bridge. This new method of attack means that Russia will need to step up naval patrols, a move that won’t significantly affect Russia’s broader war effort since Ukraine has virtually no navy.

The attack on the bridge also coincided with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, an agreement sponsored by Turkey that allowed Ukrainian grain exports to traverse the Black Sea. Russia was the world’s largest exporter of grain, with Ukraine ranking fifth. The Kremlin’s press secretary announced that Russia would end the deal in the aftermath of the bridge attack, potentially increasing political instability in the Middle East and North Africa, where the bulk of the wheat was exported.

Russia now faces a strategic problem. If Ukraine can close some distance, it can begin firing artillery at the bridge, causing further logistical problems for Russia. This could lead to a snowballing problem: further Ukrainian advances could allow for more artillery opportunities, causing more logistical problems, leading to more advances, and so on.

However, there are limitations to this strategy. The bridge is a massive structure, and Ukraine’s supply of Storm Shadow missiles, capable of causing significant damage, is finite. The system is expensive, so Ukraine will have to think carefully about how to best use them.

In conclusion, the attack on the Crimean Bridge is a significant development in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It not only disrupts Russia’s logistical capabilities but also symbolizes Ukraine’s resilience and strategic thinking. The war is far from over, and the bridge, once a symbol of Russia’s dominance, now stands as a testament to Ukraine’s determination to reclaim its territory.