Space Planes: The New Frontier of the U.S.-China Rivalry
The U.S. and China are engaged in a new space race, one that involves not only satellites and rockets, but also reusable space planes that can perform a variety of missions in orbit and beyond. The recent launches of the U.S. X-37B and the Chinese Shenlong have demonstrated the growing capabilities and ambitions of both countries in the final frontier, as well as the potential risks and challenges of operating in an increasingly crowded and contested domain.
The X-37B, developed by Boeing for the U.S. Air Force and now the Space Force, is a small, unmanned, winged vehicle that resembles a mini space shuttle. It has flown seven missions since 2010, each lasting longer than the previous one, with the longest being 780 days. The X-37B can carry various payloads and experiments, some of which are classified, and can maneuver and change orbits while in space. It can also return to Earth and land autonomously, allowing for the recovery and reuse of the vehicle and its cargo.
The Shenlong, which means “divine dragon” in Chinese, is a similar concept, but much less is known about it. China has been developing its own space plane since the early 2000s, and has reportedly conducted several test flights, including a recent one in December 2023 that lasted 17 days and released six objects into orbit. The Shenlong is believed to be larger than the X-37B, and capable of carrying more payload and reaching higher altitudes. However, it is unclear whether it has the same level of reusability and autonomy as the X-37B, or what its exact purpose and mission are.
Both the U.S. and China have stated that their space planes are intended for peaceful and scientific purposes, such as testing new technologies, conducting experiments, and deploying small satellites. However, some experts and observers have speculated that the space planes could also have military applications, such as spying, jamming, or even attacking other satellites, or serving as platforms for hypersonic weapons or power-beaming systems. The secrecy and ambiguity surrounding the space planes have fueled suspicions and mistrust between the two rivals, as well as concerns about the potential for conflict and escalation in space.
The U.S. and China are not the only countries interested in developing reusable space planes. Russia, India, Japan, and Europe have also pursued or expressed interest in similar projects, albeit with varying degrees of progress and success. The emergence of these vehicles could offer new opportunities for cooperation and innovation in space, as well as new challenges for governance and regulation. As the space plane technology matures and proliferates, it will be important for the international community to establish norms and rules of behavior for the safe and responsible use of space, and to prevent the militarization and weaponization of this domain.
