Shadow Over Sovereignty: The Gradual Grip of Russia on Belarus
The term “soft annexation” in the context of Belarus and Russia refers to a gradual, non-formal takeover of Belarus by Russia through various means, rather than an outright, formal annexation like that of Crimea in 2014. This process has been unfolding over recent years, particularly noticeable from around 2020.
The relationship between Belarus and Russia has been complex and evolving. Historically, both countries were part of the Soviet Union, and after its dissolution, they continued to have close ties. Belarus, under the leadership of President Alexander Lukashenko since 1994, had managed to maintain a balance between the West and Russia while keeping centralized state controls over its economy and political system. However, this balance began to shift more towards Russia in recent years.
One of the key moments that accelerated this shift was the 2020 presidential election in Belarus. The election, widely regarded as rigged, led to massive protests against Lukashenko. The Russian government, led by President Vladimir Putin, played a crucial role in supporting Lukashenko during this period. This support included political backing, economic assistance, and a clear opposition to any democratic reforms in Belarus. In exchange, Lukashenko became increasingly reliant on Putin, leading to deeper integration between Belarus and Russia.
The nature of this soft annexation is multifaceted. It involves political coercion, economic dependence, and military integration. Russian oligarchs have acquired significant control over key industries in Belarus, and Moscow has influenced Belarus to align its policies and interests more closely with those of Russia. This includes the “harmonization” of Belarusian laws with those of Russia, a coordinated foreign and defense policy, and economic cooperation prioritizing Russian interests.
In practice, this approach has led to a diminishing of Belarus’s sovereignty, making it more of a satellite state to Russia. This has significant implications for regional security, particularly for Belarus’s European neighbors, some of whom are members of NATO and the European Union.
The leaked internal strategy document from Putin’s executive office, obtained by Yahoo News, revealed a detailed plan for the full control over Belarus under the pretext of a merger between the two countries by 2030. This plan encompasses various aspects, including political, economic, and military strategies to incorporate Belarus into a “Union State” with Russia.
In addition to political and economic control, military integration has been a crucial part of this process. There has been a steady militarization of Belarus and integration of Russian and Belarusian armed forces. This became more apparent after the disputed 2020 presidential election in Belarus, which led to a crackdown on dissent by Lukashenko and forced him into closer alignment with Moscow.
Overall, the soft annexation of Belarus by Russia represents a strategic move by Moscow to extend its influence and control in the region. It serves as a model for Russia’s approach towards other neighboring countries, where it seeks to extend its control through non-conventional means, avoiding outright military annexation but achieving similar ends through political, economic, and military dominance.
