Shadow and Doubt: Unpacking the Wagner Group’s Alleged Nuclear Gambit at Voronezh-45

Voronezh-45 is one of Russia’s nuclear weapons storage facilities, operated and guarded by a military unit part of the defence ministry’s 12th Main Directorate, which is responsible for protecting Russia’s arsenal of nuclear weapons. The facility’s exact contents are a closely guarded secret, and it is unclear what, if any, nuclear weapons are stored there. The story that Wagner fighters reached the facility with the intention of seizing portable, Soviet-era nuclear weapons, as reported by Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Chief Kyrylo Budanov, adds a dramatic layer to the narrative.

Budanov’s account suggests that the Wagner Group, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, intended to capture these nuclear weapons as a means of escalating their mutiny and raising the stakes in their confrontation with the Russian government. However, the credibility of this claim has been questioned, with U.S. officials expressing doubts and stating they were not aware “that nuclear weapons or materials were at risk”.

The Wagner Group’s movement towards Moscow and their detour towards the nuclear facility was marked by significant support from local populations in towns like Boguchar, highlighting the complex relationship between different factions within Russia. This sympathy for the Wagner Group, as well as the inaction of the Russian military in these areas, speaks to the internal divisions and shifting allegiances within the country.

Despite the sensational nature of Budanov’s claims, it’s important to consider the practicalities of seizing and using nuclear weapons. Experts note that Russian tactical nuclear warheads are generally not fully assembled and stored separately from their delivery vehicles, making it extremely difficult for a non-state actor to use them even if they were seized. Moreover, Russian non-strategic nuclear warheads are secured with permissive action links (PALs) that require codes to unlock, adding another layer of security.

In summary, while the Wagner Group’s proximity to Voronezh-45 and their supposed intentions make for a compelling story, the reality of the situation is likely more nuanced. The true motivations, capabilities, and actions of the Wagner Group in this context are obscured by the fog of war and the complexities of Russian internal politics.