Russia’s War with Ukraine: A Costly and Self-Defeating Strategy

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was a reckless and aggressive move that has backfired on Moscow in multiple ways. Not only has it provoked international condemnation and sanctions, but it has also exposed Russia’s economic and military vulnerabilities, while failing to achieve its strategic objectives. In this article, I will analyze some of the main costs and consequences of Russia’s war with Ukraine, and argue that it is a costly and self-defeating strategy that should be abandoned as soon as possible.

Economic Costs

One of the most obvious costs of Russia’s war with Ukraine is the economic damage it has inflicted on both countries. According to the World Bank, Ukraine’s GDP contracted by 9.5 percent in 2022 and is expected to grow by only 1.5 percent in 2023, while Russia’s GDP shrank by 2.1 percent in 2022 and is projected to grow by 2.2 percent in 2023. Both countries have suffered from inflation, currency depreciation, capital flight, and reduced foreign investment.

Moreover, Russia’s war with Ukraine has disrupted the energy sector, which is vital for both economies. Russia is facing a rise in gas prices and a shortage of fuel due to fires at several oil refineries, which are suspected to be caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. Russia has also lost access to some of its gas transit routes through Ukraine, which used to supply about 40 percent of Europe’s gas demand. Ukraine, on the other hand, has faced severe energy shortages and blackouts, as Russia has cut off its gas supplies and sabotaged its power grids.

Another economic cost of Russia’s war with Ukraine is the impact of the sanctions imposed by the West. The US, the EU, and other countries have imposed a range of sanctions on Russia, targeting its financial, energy, defense, and technology sectors, as well as individuals and entities involved in the invasion. These sanctions have reduced Russia’s access to international markets and capital, increased its borrowing costs, and hampered its economic diversification and modernization efforts3. According to some estimates, the sanctions could reduce Russia’s GDP by up to 10 percent by 2025.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has also made it more dependent on food imports, especially eggs and chicken meat, due to the war and the sanctions imposed by the West. Russia has banned food imports from the EU, the US, and other countries that have sanctioned it, but this has not been enough to meet its domestic demand. Russia has had to rely on imports from countries like Brazil, Argentina, and China, which are more expensive and less reliable. Russia’s food security and self-sufficiency have been compromised by its war with Ukraine.

Military Costs

Another cost of Russia’s war with Ukraine is the military losses and casualties it has suffered. According to the Ukrainian General Staff, more than 40,000 Russian troops have been killed and more than 100,000 wounded since the start of the war. Ukraine has also claimed to have destroyed or captured hundreds of Russian tanks, armored vehicles, artillery systems, aircraft, and drones. These figures are likely to be exaggerated, but they indicate the scale and intensity of the fighting.

One of the most significant military losses for Russia was the downing of one of its A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft over the Aral Sea, which was worth $300 million and had a crew of 15. The A-50 is a key asset for Russia’s air defense and command and control capabilities, and its loss has reduced Russia’s situational awareness and operational effectiveness in the region. Russia has also changed the flight paths of its remaining A-50 aircraft, which now stay over Russian territory, reducing their operational range and effectiveness.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has also exposed its vulnerability to Ukrainian air attacks, as it has moved most of its air defenses to the occupied territories of Crimea and Donbas, leaving its own cities vulnerable to Ukrainian air attacks. Russia has suffered several drone strikes on its military and industrial facilities in different regions, such as Tula, Smolensk, Oryol, and Ust Luga. These strikes have damaged or destroyed some of Russia’s strategic assets, such as missile production plants, radar stations, and naval bases.

Strategic Costs

The final cost of Russia’s war with Ukraine is the strategic failure and isolation it has brought upon itself. Russia’s main objectives in invading Ukraine were to prevent its integration with the West, to secure its influence and control over the region, and to assert its status as a great power. However, none of these objectives have been achieved, and in fact, the opposite has happened.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has pushed Ukraine closer to the West, as it has received political, economic, and military support from the US, the EU, and NATO. Ukraine has also accelerated its reforms and integration with the West, signing an association agreement and a free trade deal with the EU, and seeking NATO membership. Ukraine has become more resilient and determined to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity against Russia’s aggression.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has also weakened its influence and control over the region, as it has alienated and antagonized its neighbors and partners. Many countries in Eastern Europe, the Caucasus, and Central Asia have increased their cooperation and coordination with the West, and have reduced their dependence and alignment with Russia. Some of them, such as Georgia, Moldova, and Azerbaijan, have also faced Russian pressure and interference in their internal affairs, but have resisted and defended their interests.

Russia’s war with Ukraine has also diminished its status and reputation as a great power, as it has faced international condemnation and isolation. Russia has been expelled from the G8, suspended from the Council of Europe, and sanctioned by many countries and organizations. Russia has also lost its credibility and trust as a partner and mediator in various regional and global issues, such as the Iran nuclear deal, the Syrian civil war, and the North Korean nuclear crisis. Russia has become more isolated and marginalized in the international arena.

Conclusion

Russia’s war with Ukraine is a costly and self-defeating strategy that has brought more harm than benefit to Russia. It has damaged its economy, depleted its military, and failed its strategic goals. It has also harmed its people, who have suffered from inflation, poverty, and insecurity. It is time for Russia to end its war with Ukraine, and to seek a peaceful and diplomatic solution that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and that restores Russia’s relations and cooperation with the international community. This is the only way for Russia to avoid further costs and consequences.