Russia’s Hybrid Warfare in Ukraine
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which initiated in 2014, has sent reverberations across the global geopolitical landscape. The paper by Lanoszka and Hunzeker meticulously dissects the hybrid strategy employed by Russia, which is a cauldron of conventional, irregular, and information warfare. By leveraging this triple-tiered approach, Russia aims to destabilize Ukraine, create a rift between NATO and EU members, and expand its sphere of influence, all while avoiding direct confrontation with NATO. This hybrid strategy not only unsettles Ukraine but presents a complex array of challenges for the Western powers. Some of these challenges include identifying and countering covert and deniable forces, combating disinformation and propaganda campaigns, and managing escalation dynamics that could lead to a nuclear conflict. The paper also offers some policy recommendations for Ukraine and the West to enhance their military and economic resilience, strengthen their diplomatic engagement, and increase their public awareness of Russian hybrid methods.
Objectives and Tactics of Russia’s Hybrid Warfare
The paper identifies Russia’s four key objectives in its hybrid warfare strategy against Ukraine: undermining Ukraine’s sovereignty by supporting separatist movements and violating its territorial integrity, halting its western integration by disrupting its relations with the EU and NATO, fracturing NATO and the EU by exploiting their internal divisions and weakening their credibility, and amplifying Russia’s geopolitical clout by asserting its dominance in the region and challenging the US-led world order. To achieve these objectives, Russia deploys a blend of covert forces, such as mercenaries, local proxies, and “little green men” who operate without insignia or identification, employs manipulative information operations, such as disinformation, propaganda, and cyberattacks, to sow confusion, distrust, and fear among the Ukrainian population and the international community, and plays a high-stakes game of escalation dynamics, such as threats, demonstrations, and limited strikes, to create a highly volatile situation and deter a robust response from Ukraine and the West.
The use of covert and deniable forces like mercenaries and local proxies adds a layer of complexity to the conflict. This anonymity complicates the situation, as attributing violence and disruption to Russia becomes a contested point. Russia denies any direct involvement in the war, despite overwhelming evidence of its military presence and support for the separatists. The use of covert forces also allows Russia to avoid triggering NATO’s collective defense clause, which would oblige the alliance to intervene if one of its members is attacked. By using a hybrid strategy that blends conventional, irregular, and informational warfare, Russia seeks to achieve its objectives while minimizing the risks and costs of a full-scale confrontation with the West.
Information operations are a key component of Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy in Ukraine. Russia uses disinformation, propaganda, and cyberattacks to undermine the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government, sow discord among the Western allies, and shape public opinion in favor of its actions. Russia also exploits the information space to manipulate the escalation dynamics of the conflict, creating ambiguity and uncertainty about its intentions and capabilities. Russia employs a range of tactics, such as issuing threats and warnings, conducting military exercises and demonstrations, launching limited strikes and incursions, and deploying covert and deniable forces. These tactics are designed to test the resolve and deterrence of Ukraine and the West, coerce them into concessions, and prevent them from taking effective countermeasures.
The West’s Response and Its Shortcomings
Major Western nations expressed outrage at Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly the event that unfolded in February 2022, when Russian troops crossed the border and seized several cities. While the verbal condemnation was loud, it was often not backed by decisive actions or unified strategies. Macron’s declaration that this conflict is a “turning point in the history of Europe” needs to be followed by concrete steps that can effectively counter Russia’s multifaceted hybrid warfare strategy, which includes the use of covert forces, information operations, and escalation dynamics. Some of these steps could be bolstering Ukraine’s military and economic resilience, strengthening NATO’s posture and deterrence, increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia, and educating the public about the influence of propaganda and disinformation.
The G7 group has announced new sanctions on Russia, including a ban on Russian diamonds, metals and military-industrial complex, to punish Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine. However, sanctions alone won’t suffice to deter Russia, which has shown its willingness to escalate the conflict and challenge the West. Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has warned the West of the risk of a nuclear war over Ukraine, accusing them of undermining international security and stability. He also claimed that the West was trying to expand the crisis to the Asia-Pacific region, where China and Russia have strengthened their strategic partnership. The West needs to tread cautiously but resolutely, and adopt a multi-pronged strategy that includes military, diplomatic and informational measures to support Ukraine and counter Russia’s hybrid warfare.
What Ukraine and the West Can Do
The paper by Lanoszka and Hunzeker offers some viable policy recommendations to counter Russia’s hybrid warfare in Ukraine, such as bolstering Ukraine’s military and economic resilience, strengthening NATO’s posture, and increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia. But these are not sufficient in isolation. The paper also suggests that the West should provide tactical training and intelligence sharing to Ukraine, engage in diplomatic dialogue with Russia to defuse tension, and launch a public awareness campaign to educate the masses about the influence of propaganda and disinformation. These measures, along with a comprehensive and coordinated strategy among the Western allies, are necessary to deter further Russian aggression and support Ukraine’s sovereignty and integration with the West.
Firstly, enhancing Ukraine’s military capabilities and resilience should not just be about weapon supplies; it should extend to tactical training and intelligence sharing. The United States has been providing Ukraine with military equipment, such as heavy artillery, drones, and antitank missiles, as well as intelligence about the Russian military. The United States has also deployed troops in Poland to train Ukrainian forces on how to use the weapons and counter Russian tactics. Additionally, other NATO allies, such as the United Kingdom, Canada, and Germany, have also contributed to Ukraine’s defense sector reform and capacity building. Secondly, diplomatic engagement should not be perceived as a sign of weakness but as a strategy to defuse tension while keeping all channels open for negotiation. The Biden administration has expressed its preference for de-escalation through diplomacy and has laid out clear principles ahead of talks with Russia. The United States has also consulted closely with its European allies and partners, including Ukraine, to develop a coordinated and comprehensive transatlantic approach. Furthermore, the United States has supported the efforts of France and Germany to facilitate a peaceful resolution of the conflict through the Normandy Format.
The paper suggests that open societies have an advantage over closed ones in countering disinformation, because they can foster critical thinking, media literacy, and civic engagement among their citizens. However, this advantage is not automatic or guaranteed. A massive public awareness campaign needs to be initiated to educate the masses about the risks and impacts of propaganda and disinformation, especially during times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic. With the proliferation of fake news and echo chambers on social media platforms, educating the public becomes imperative for societal resilience and democratic values. Such a campaign should not only expose and debunk false or misleading information, but also promote reliable and trustworthy sources, such as the World Health Organization and national health authorities. Moreover, the campaign should encourage the public to verify information before sharing it, and to report any suspicious or harmful content to the relevant authorities or platforms. By raising awareness and strengthening societal resilience, open societies can leverage their potential to counter disinformation and uphold their principles of freedom and transparency.
The Final Word
Russia’s hybrid warfare strategy in Ukraine is a game changer in modern conflicts, and it sets a precedent for how state actors can exploit a blend of conventional, irregular, and informational tactics to achieve their geopolitical objectives. For Ukraine, the conflict is a battle for its very existence and sovereignty, as well as its integration with the West. For the West, it serves as a litmus test for their unity, strategic capabilities, and moral fortitude in the face of Russian aggression and revisionism. The West needs to adopt a multi-pronged strategy that includes enhancing Ukraine’s military and economic resilience, strengthening NATO’s posture and deterrence, increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia, and countering its disinformation and cyberattacks. The time for decisive action is now, before the conflict escalates into a wider war that could have catastrophic consequences for regional and global security.
