Russia’s Historic November Losses and Putin’s ‘Moral’ Solution
The war in Ukraine has entered its second winter, and the toll on Russia’s military and population is becoming more evident. In November, Russia suffered its highest number of casualties since the invasion began in February 2022, with more than 10,000 troops killed and wounded, according to Ukrainian sources. This is comparable to the losses of Imperial Russia during World War I, when it lost about 1.7 million soldiers in four years of fighting.
The reasons for Russia’s high casualty rate are manifold. First, Ukraine has proven to be a formidable adversary, with a well-trained and motivated army, backed by NATO and US support. Ukraine has also deployed advanced weapons, such as US-provided ATACMS missiles and drones, that have inflicted heavy damage on Russian tanks, artillery, and air defenses. Second, Russia has faced logistical and operational challenges, such as supply shortages, poor weather conditions, and low morale among its troops. Some of the Russian soldiers are reportedly conscripts or mercenaries, who have little loyalty or motivation to fight. Third, Russia has faced international pressure and isolation, as the US and its allies have imposed crippling sanctions on its economy, cutting off its access to global markets and financial institutions.
The war in Ukraine has also exposed Russia’s demographic crisis, which has been exacerbated by the pandemic, low birth rates, and high mortality rates. According to the Russian Federal State Statistics Service, Russia’s population declined by 689,000 people in 2020, the largest drop since 2005. The war has further reduced Russia’s population, especially among young men, who are the main victims of the conflict. According to some estimates, Russia has lost about 320,000 soldiers since the invasion of Ukraine, which is equivalent to the population of a medium-sized city.
In response to this crisis, Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed a “moral” solution, which he outlined in his speech at the Valdai Discussion Club in October. He said that Russia needs to “restore the spiritual and moral values that have always been the foundation of our society” and to “strengthen the institution of the family, support motherhood and childhood, and create conditions for the birth and upbringing of healthy and happy children”. He also said that Russia needs to “accelerate” the creation of a “new world order based on law and justice”, in which Russia would play a leading role and defend its interests and sovereignty.
However, Putin’s solution seems to be at odds with his actions, as he continues to wage a costly and unpopular war in Ukraine, which undermines his own stated goals of peace, stability, and prosperity. Moreover, Putin’s solution does not address the root causes of Russia’s demographic decline, such as poor health care, low living standards, corruption, and repression. As long as Putin remains in power, Russia is unlikely to reverse its downward spiral, and may face more challenges and conflicts in the future.
