Russia’s Dance with the Outcasts: The North Korea Pivot and the Shrinking Shadow of Power

Christian Baghai
6 min readDec 1, 2024

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Photo by Thomas Evans on Unsplash

Russia’s got itself in a pickle. A big one. Imagine you’re hosting a party, but nobody cool shows up. So, you’re left sipping vodka with that weird guy in the corner (North Korea) and the neighbor who keeps loaning you their lawnmower but glares at you every time you use it (Iran). That’s where Russia finds itself — deep in a geopolitical punchline. But it’s not a joke; it’s a slow, awkward shuffle into irrelevance.

North Korea: Russia’s New Best Friend (Because Nobody Else Answered the Phone)

When you’re running low on bullets and buddies, who do you call? North Korea. They’ve got warehouses full of dusty Soviet-era weapons that are old enough to remember disco but still lethal enough to do the job.

Military Love Letters from Pyongyang

  • Artillery and Rockets: Kim Jong-un’s been shipping crates of ammo and rockets to Russia like it’s Black Friday in a dictatorship. They’re outdated, sure, but when you’re desperate, you don’t complain about the expiration date.
  • Labor and Know-How: North Korean workers are now rebuilding Donbas while their engineers dig tunnels so deep you could hit China on the other side. Russia’s happy to let them work for peanuts because, let’s face it, beggars can’t be choosers.

But let’s be real: this isn’t a bromance. It’s survival. Russia’s leaning on a guy who can’t even keep his own lights on, let alone shine them on the world stage. It’s like borrowing gas money from someone living out of their car. Desperate meets desperate.

Iran: The Lawn Mower Lender

Iran’s got drones. Good ones, too. Those buzzing death machines have been a pain for Ukraine. But here’s the catch: Iran’s not exactly rolling in resources. Their production lines are slower than a DMV on a Monday, and sanctions keep slapping them around like an angry ex.

  • Limited Supply: Sure, Iran’s drones have made a splash, but they’re more like a puddle in the desert compared to North Korea’s flood of munitions.
  • Too Many Strings Attached: Iran’s got its own agenda — dominate the Middle East, poke at Israel, and maybe sell some oil on the sly. They’re not about to hand the keys to the kingdom over to Moscow.

So, what does Russia do? Diversify. North Korea’s the Costco of desperation shopping, while Iran is more of a boutique supplier. Neither’s great, but hey, it’s better than nothing.

Russia’s Soft Power: Melting Faster than Arctic Ice

Remember when Russia had swagger? They used to be the guy who showed up at the global poker table with a big stack and a smug grin. Now, they’re trying to bluff with pariah states. That’s not a power move — that’s a cry for help.

Isolation Is a Lonely Game

  • Fewer Friends: When your Rolodex includes North Korea and Iran, it’s not a good look. Europe’s shut the door, Asia’s keeping its distance (except China, but even they’re side-eyeing you), and the Global South is thinking twice.
  • Damage to Credibility: Aligning with countries known for human rights abuses and missile tantrums doesn’t scream “global leader.” It screams, “This is all I’ve got left.”

Transactional Relationships: No Strings, Just Stress

  • These alliances aren’t based on trust or shared values. They’re deals made in the shadows, like buying fireworks from a guy in a van. You might get what you need, but you won’t feel good about it.
  • North Korea and Iran aren’t exactly predictable partners. They’ve got their own survival games to play, and Russia’s just another pawn on their board.

The “Axis of Necessity”: A Club Nobody Wants to Join

Russia, North Korea, and Iran — what a trio. They’ve banded together out of necessity, like three outcasts plotting revenge on the cool kids. But here’s the thing: it’s not an alliance — it’s a support group for countries that got kicked off the main stage.

Fragmented Goals, No Cohesion

  • North Korea’s main goal is survival. They want to stay on Kim Jong-un’s good side (or avoid his bad side).
  • Iran’s eyes are on regional dominance and keeping its revolution alive.
  • Russia just wants to survive Ukraine and not implode.

It’s a messy, temporary friendship where everyone’s using each other. Think of it as the geopolitical equivalent of a reality TV alliance: great for drama, terrible for long-term success.

Why This All Matters

Let’s not mince words: Russia’s turning into that guy who shows up at the party with cheap beer and leaves before cleaning up. Their pivot to North Korea isn’t just about war — it’s about a shrinking sphere of influence, an eroding reputation, and a desperate grasp at relevance.

  • Reinforcing Western Unity: Every time Russia hugs North Korea or shakes hands with Iran, NATO gets tighter, Ukraine gets more weapons, and the West gets more reason to keep the pressure on.
  • Strategic Overreach: Russia’s spreading itself thin — militarily, diplomatically, and economically. Aligning with pariahs might work in the short term, but it’s not a long-term game plan.

Conclusion: The Punchline Nobody Wanted

Here’s the kicker: Russia’s playing a losing hand. They’re not building a multipolar world — they’re building a sideshow. A coalition of the cornered. North Korea and Iran might fill the gaps for now, but they’re not the answer to Russia’s problems — they’re just more evidence of them.

So, what’s the lesson here? You can’t lead the world when your best friends are the guys nobody else will sit with. Russia’s soft power is melting faster than ice caps, and its hard power is running on borrowed time. The party’s winding down, and Russia’s stuck with the leftovers. That’s not strategy — that’s survival.

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Christian Baghai
Christian Baghai

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