Russia Is on a Risky Offensive. Will It Backfire?
Russia’s intensified offensive against Avdiivka, a small but strategically significant Ukrainian city, is drawing attention worldwide, especially with the Russian presidential election looming. This military escalation, just weeks before an election expected to be a landslide for Vladimir Putin, raises questions about its timing and potential risks.
Russia’s New Offensive
Avdiivka, located in the heart of Donetsk region, has been a frontline city since 2014. It’s home to Ukraine’s largest coke plant, crucial for the steel industry, and has been a bastion of Ukrainian resistance against Russian-backed separatists. The city’s location near the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk makes it a strategic target for Russia, aiming to consolidate control in the Donbas region. Despite heavy shelling and attacks in previous years, Ukraine has managed to maintain control of Avdiivka, fending off Russian offensives.
The 2024 offensive has seen Russia deploying advanced weaponry and tactics, including Tornado-S multiple rocket launchers and drones, while mobilizing large numbers of conscripts and volunteers. This renewed aggression results in high human costs, with both sides suffering heavy losses (Reuters, The Moscow Times).
Elections in Autocracies
The timing of this offensive, right before the Russian presidential election, is puzzling. Putin, with high approval ratings and constitutional amendments allowing him to stay in power until 2036, faces little opposition. The risk of military failure could damage his popularity and legitimacy. Political scientist William Spaniel suggests that this move might be aimed at demonstrating Putin’s strength, distracting from domestic issues, or preempting challenges from opposition.
Possible Explanations for the Offensive
Several theories arise regarding Putin’s decision to escalate the conflict now. One view is that the offensive is intended to rally public support around Putin, showcasing military success. Another perspective is that it’s a strategic move, exploiting a perceived window of opportunity before Ukraine can garner more Western support or face increased sanctions. There’s also the possibility that Putin is acting on a strategic calculation, focusing on long-term goals like annexing Donbas and challenging the West, rather than immediate political gains.
Conclusion
The outcome of this offensive remains uncertain, with potential to backfire on Putin if it fails to achieve its objectives. The situation in Avdiivka reflects the broader dynamics of the conflict in Ukraine, with far-reaching implications for the region and international relations. As the conflict continues, the global community watches closely, pondering the motives behind Putin’s risky gamble and its potential consequences.
