Rising Tides of Conflict: Houthi Maritime Strikes and the Escalating Geopolitical Crisis in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden
The recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden by Houthi forces have escalated tensions in a strategically critical region. The situation is complex, involving various geopolitical and regional dynamics. The attacks have been condemned by the international community, including a joint statement by 12 countries and a UN Security Council resolution, calling for an immediate end to the attacks and the release of the detained vessels and crews.
Firstly, the Houthi forces, based in Yemen, have targeted a range of commercial vessels, including those with no direct connection to Israel. This contradicts their initial claims of targeting only vessels linked to Israel. Notably, attacks have been carried out on ships such as a Russian oil tanker and others with no Israeli connections, indicating a broader agenda beyond just targeting Israeli interests.
The Bab al-Mandab Strait, where many of these attacks have occurred, is a crucial maritime route. It serves as a gateway for global seaborne commodity shipments, particularly crude oil and fuel from the Gulf, heading towards the Mediterranean via the Suez Canal, as well as commodities bound for Asia, including Russian oil. The strait’s strategic importance is underscored by the volume of traffic it sees, with millions of barrels per day of crude and fuel shipments transiting through it. The Houthi attacks have disrupted this vital trade route, causing many shipping companies to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant cost and delay to the delivery of goods, and jeopardizing the movement of critical food, fuel, and humanitarian assistance throughout the world.
In response to these attacks, the United States and its allies, including the United Kingdom, have carried out strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen. These strikes aimed to degrade the Houthis’ ability to continue their maritime attacks. The joint assault involved U.S. aircraft, ships, and submarines, and was supported by other nations like Australia, Canada, the Netherlands, and Bahrain. The strikes targeted radar systems, drone, cruise, and ballistic missile storage and launch sites across Yemen, with a focus on reducing the threat to maritime navigation in the Red Sea. The strikes were launched on Thursday, January 11, 2024, following a series of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Gulf of Aden, including a Russian oil tanker. President Joe Biden said the strikes were a defensive action and a clear message to the Houthis and their Iranian backers. The Houthis confirmed that their capital, Sanaa, was hit and vowed to retaliate.
The Houthis have received significant support from Iran, evident in the weapons used in these attacks, such as anti-ship missiles and drones, which are believed to be supplied by Iran. This support extends to training and intelligence, highlighting the broader regional implications and the proxy nature of the conflict. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Quds Force and Lebanese Hezbollah have played a critical role in providing assistance to the Yemen-based Houthis. Iran has also rejected US and UK calls to end its support for the Houthi attacks, and praised the rebel fighters’ “brave actions” against “Zionist aggression”. Iran’s involvement in the conflict is seen as part of its broader strategy to challenge Saudi Arabia and its allies, as well as to support Palestinian resistance movements.
Saudi Arabia’s role in the conflict is also notable. Historically opposed to the Houthis and engaged in the Yemeni conflict, Saudi Arabia now appears to be seeking de-escalation and a peace deal with the Houthis, recognizing the complexity and the drawn-out nature of the conflict. Saudi Arabia has proposed a new peace plan that includes a UN-supervised ceasefire, the reopening of vital air and sea links, and the start of political negotiations. The plan was announced after Saudi and Houthi leaders met for the first time in public in Sana’a, with the mediation of Oman. However, the Houthis have rejected the offer, saying it did not address their demand for a complete lifting of the blockade on Sana’a airport and Hudaydah port. The Saudi initiative is seen as a result of its improved relations with Iran, which backs the Houthis, after a deal brokered by China.
The situation has broader implications for the region, particularly with respect to the conflict in Gaza and tensions between Israel and Hamas. While the Houthi attacks do not directly impact the Gaza conflict, they are part of a larger regional power play involving Iran and its proxies, which has the potential to escalate tensions further.
Additionally, the latest Houthi attack involved firing an anti-ship ballistic missile into international shipping lanes in the Gulf of Aden. This incident, the 27th such attack since November 19, was the first of its kind in the world, as anti-ship ballistic missiles are usually designed to target land-based targets, not moving ships. The missile missed its target, a Russian oil tanker that was mistakenly identified as a British ship by the Houthis.
In summary, the situation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden is a multifaceted conflict with implications for regional stability, international trade, and global oil markets. The recent U.S. and allied military response, while aimed at deterring further Houthi attacks, also raises concerns about the potential for wider regional escalation. The international community’s role in navigating these tensions, ensuring the security of vital maritime routes, and seeking a resolution to the underlying conflicts will be critical in the coming months.
