Putin’s Threats VS Reality: Russia is freezing while Europe is Prospering
In recent months, the tension between Russia and NATO over Ukraine has escalated to a dangerous level, with the Kremlin threatening to cut off gas supplies to Europe if the West does not back down from its support for Kyiv. However, this threat has proven to be more of a bluff than a real leverage, as Europe has shown resilience and preparedness in the face of a potential energy crisis. In contrast, Russia has suffered from the consequences of its own aggressive and isolationist policies, which have led to economic decline and social unrest. In this essay, I will argue that Putin’s plan to freeze Europe has failed, and that Europe is prospering while Russia is freezing.
Europe’s gas reservoirs are 80% full and gas prices are at least 15 times lower than predicted in Russia
One of the main reasons why Europe is not intimidated by Putin’s threat is that it has enough gas reserves to withstand a temporary disruption of supplies from Russia. According to a report by the European Commission, Europe’s gas storage levels are at 79.5% as of January 25, 2024, which is higher than the average of the last five years (75.9%). This means that Europe has enough gas to cover its demand for at least three months, even without any imports from Russia. Moreover, Europe has diversified its sources of gas, importing more from Norway, Algeria, Qatar, and the US, as well as developing its own renewable energy capacity. As a result, Europe’s gas prices have remained stable and affordable, at around $7 per MMBtu, compared to the $105 per MMBtu that Russia has predicted for Europe in case of a cut-off.
Hundreds of thousands of Russian citizens have been left without heating due to the poor condition of the country’s heating systems
While Europe is enjoying a warm and comfortable winter, Russia is facing a cold and miserable one, as hundreds of thousands of its citizens have been left without heating due to the poor condition of the country’s heating systems. According to a report by the Russian Ministry of Energy, more than 300,000 people in Russia have experienced heating outages in the winter of 2023–2024, and 29.7% of heating systems are in critical condition⁴. This is mainly due to the lack of investment and maintenance in the infrastructure, as well as the corruption and mismanagement of the state-owned gas monopoly Gazprom, which is responsible for supplying gas to the domestic market. Many Russians have taken to the streets to protest against the government’s failure to provide them with basic services, and some have even resorted to burning furniture and books to keep warm.
Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2024, and sanctions imposed by the West have reduced Russia’s access to finance and technology
Another reason why Putin’s threat has backfired is that it has further isolated Russia from the international community, and damaged its economy and reputation. According to a report by the World Bank, Russia’s economy is expected to contract by 0.8% in 2024, and sanctions imposed by the West have reduced Russia’s access to finance and technology⁵. The sanctions have targeted Russia’s key sectors, such as energy, banking, defense, and mining, as well as individuals and entities linked to the Kremlin. These measures have made it harder for Russia to attract foreign investment, diversify its economy, and modernize its industries. Furthermore, the sanctions have eroded Russia’s credibility and influence in the world, as many countries have condemned its aggression and interference in Ukraine and other regions.
