Putin’s losses put pressure on FSB to target Ukraine over winter
The war in Ukraine has been a costly and bloody affair for Russia, which invaded its neighbor in February 2022 in an attempt to prevent it from moving closer to the West. Despite having a superior military and a large arsenal of weapons, Russia has failed to achieve its strategic objectives of destabilizing the Ukrainian government. Instead, it has faced fierce resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces and volunteers, as well as diplomatic and economic sanctions from the international community.
According to some estimates, Russia has lost at least 10,000 soldiers in the war, more than the number of American troops killed in Iraq and Afghanistan combined. It has also suffered the humiliation of having one of its warships sunk by a Ukrainian missile, and being accused of war crimes for bombing civilian areas and using banned weapons. This conflict has also drained Russia’s economy, which has been hit by low oil prices, inflation, and a weak currency.
The war has also exposed the weaknesses and failures of Russia’s intelligence agencies, especially the Federal Security Service (FSB), which is the main successor of the Soviet-era KGB. The FSB was supposed to be the primary spy agency for the war in Ukraine, responsible for gathering information, conducting sabotage, and engineering coups in Ukrainian cities. However, it has been unable to deliver on its tasks, and has instead been accused of incompetence, corruption, and infighting.
According to a report by The Times, Putin was furious with the FSB for its poor performance in the war, and blamed it for the failure to capture Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, in the early stages of the invasion. He then proceeded to purge the FSB of its top officials, and transferred the responsibility for the war in Ukraine to the GRU, a heavily militarized branch of military intelligence. The GRU is known for its aggressive and ruthless tactics, and has been involved in many covert operations around the world, such as the poisoning of former spy Sergei Skripal in Britain, and the hacking of the US presidential election in 2016.
The Times also reported that Putin has ordered the FSB to try to destabilize Ukraine over the winter, as he faces growing discontent at home over the war and the economic crisis. The FSB’s fifth service, which is in charge of intelligence operations in former Soviet states, has been tasked with engineering coups in Ukrainian cities, especially in the east, where many people speak Russian and have cultural and historical ties with Russia. The FSB’s leader, Sergei Beseda, who was sanctioned by the US, EU, and UK in 2014 for his role in the war, has been visiting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities, meeting with local politicians and separatist leaders, and trying to foment unrest and violence.
The FSB’s attempts to undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity have been met with strong resistance from the Ukrainian authorities, who have arrested and expelled many Russian agents and sympathizers, and have tightened their security and border controls. The Ukrainian people have also shown their determination and resilience, and have rallied behind their government and their national identity. Despite the hardships and challenges, Ukraine has not given up on its aspiration to join the European Union and NATO, and to become a modern and democratic state.
The war in Ukraine is not only a regional conflict, but also a global security issue, as it poses a threat to the international order and the values of freedom and democracy. The war has also revealed the true nature and intentions of Putin’s regime, which is driven by expansionism, nationalism, and authoritarianism. The international community, especially the West, has a moral and strategic obligation to support Ukraine in its struggle against Russian aggression, and to deter Putin from further escalating the war or starting a new one. The war in Ukraine is not only a test of Ukraine’s will and courage, but also of the world’s conscience and solidarity.
